Electoral Calculus.
British political forecasting web site
- Reports this week
- 0
- Active events
- 0
- Connections
- 14
What's happening
One to three months ago
Gone quiet
No new reports in 90+ days-
Electoral Calculus, founded by Martin Baxter, is tracking Nigel Farage's party support and exploring potential rainbow coalition scenarios involving Restore Britain.Some support1 report1 development inside
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Predicting shifts in the capital's political power, the event details a defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.Some support1 report
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The House of Commons is tracking shifts in support and projecting its future composition based on polling data.Some support2 reports
No events began in the chosen period. Widen it, or reset.
Around Electoral Calculus this week
News at the entities that move Electoral Calculus most-
Andy Burnham OperationalAndy Burnham and Yvette Cooper announced plans to bolster the National Health Service.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Jeremy Corbyn OperationalAn inquiry has been launched into RAF bases and weapons supplied to Israel, amid political pushback from Jeremy Corbyn.Moves Electoral Calculus
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House of Commons Mentioned togetherMP Andy King fought against massive airport development at Rugby while also helping establish a technology center for jobs.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Cumbria Mentioned togetherArnside, a picturesque coastal destination in Cumbria, was included in a list of beautiful seaside towns by Express.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Carlisle Shared contextThe Arch Company is revitalizing arches located in Carlisle.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Scotland Mentioned togetherThe Senedd narrowly rejected the motion to remain in the UK, setting equality with Scotland as the minimum goal. Andy Burnham ruled out referendum powers for the Welsh government.Moves Electoral Calculus
Connections
The 13 strongest of 14, analyzed from the reporting. The bars show how strongly a change on one side reaches the other.-
Martin Baxter Structural
Martin Baxter founded Electoral Calculus.
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Andy Burnham Operational
Andy Burnham's political support and leadership are the primary drivers for Electoral Calculus's poll projections and estimates.
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House of Commons Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used to model and forecast potential future compositions of the House of Commons.
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Jeremy Corbyn Operational
Electoral Calculus actively surveys and tracks Jeremy Corbyn's political chances.
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Greater Manchester Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a tool to track and analyze the political trends within Greater Manchester.
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Cumbria Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a conceptual model to analyze the political shifts and parliamentary seats within Cumbria.
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Carlisle Shared context
Electoral Calculus is being applied to the Carlisle region to project potential shifts in political representation.
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Scotland Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used to model and project potential election outcomes within the political context of Scotland.
Show all 13 connections
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Nigel Farage Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a framework to track and model the support base and political viability of Nigel Farage.
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Democrats Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a tracking tool to report on the political standing of the Democrats.
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government Shared context
Electoral Calculus operates within the regulatory and political context of the government, specifically concerning tourism industry oversight.
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Restore Britain Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus included Restore Britain in its research.
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Finchley Mentioned together
Evidence is insufficient to establish a direct relationship between Finchley and Electoral Calculus.
History
Events by the month they beganJuly 2026
3 events- Models are underway regarding potential political shifts and representation changes in the county of Cumbria, with a focus on Carlisle.
- Electoral Calculus, founded by Martin Baxter, is tracking Nigel Farage's party support and exploring potential rainbow coalition scenarios involving Restore Britain.
- Predicting shifts in the capital's political power, the event details a defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.