Electoral Calculus.
British political forecasting web site
- Reports this week
- 0
- Active events
- 0
- Connections
- 13
What's happening
Gone quiet
No new reports in 90+ days-
Electoral Calculus, founded by Martin Baxter, is tracking Nigel Farage's party support and exploring potential rainbow coalition scenarios involving Restore Britain.Some support1 report1 development inside
-
Predicting shifts in the capital's political power, the event details a defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.Some support1 report
-
The House of Commons is tracking shifts in support and projecting its future composition based on polling data.Some support2 reports
No events began in the chosen period. Widen it, or reset.
Around Electoral Calculus this week
News at the entities that move Electoral Calculus most-
Andy Burnham OperationalBadenoch criticized Burnham's reopening of divisions while Burnham planned to meet the EC chief in Brussels following his Liverpool conference.Moves Electoral Calculus
-
Jeremy Corbyn OperationalElectoral Calculus surveys Jeremy Corbyn's chances, confirming he holds his seat in Islington North.Moves Electoral Calculus
-
House of Commons Mentioned togetherPhil Brickell criticized tax proposals in Parliament, linking the policy to pressures in Bolton, Westhoughton, Horwich, and Blackrod.Moves Electoral Calculus
-
Cumbria Mentioned togetherDavid Allen and Mike Starkie are campaigning for the Mayor of Cumbria.Moves Electoral Calculus
-
Carlisle Shared contextLuke Jerram's Museum of the Moon installation in Carlisle is drawing 1,000 visitors daily.Moves Electoral Calculus
-
Scotland Mentioned togetherNairn supports its local economy through independent businesses.Moves Electoral Calculus
Connections
The 12 strongest of 13, analyzed from the reporting. The bars show how strongly a change on one side reaches the other.-
Martin Baxter Structural
Martin Baxter founded Electoral Calculus.
-
House of Commons Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used to model and forecast potential future compositions of the House of Commons.
-
Andy Burnham Operational
Andy Burnham's political support and leadership are cited as the primary driver for Electoral Calculus's poll projections.
-
Jeremy Corbyn Operational
Electoral Calculus actively surveys and tracks Jeremy Corbyn's political chances.
-
Greater Manchester Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a tool to track and analyze the political trends within Greater Manchester.
-
Cumbria Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a conceptual model to analyze the political shifts and parliamentary seats within Cumbria.
-
Carlisle Shared context
Electoral Calculus is being applied to the Carlisle region to project potential shifts in political representation.
-
Scotland Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used to model and project potential election outcomes within the political context of Scotland.
Show all 12 connections
-
Nigel Farage Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a framework to track and model the support base and political viability of Nigel Farage.
-
Restore Britain Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus included Restore Britain in its research.
-
government Shared context
Electoral Calculus operates within the regulatory and political context of the government, specifically concerning tourism industry oversight.
-
Finchley Mentioned together
Evidence is insufficient to establish a direct relationship between Finchley and Electoral Calculus.
History
Events by the month they beganJuly 2026
3 events- Models are underway regarding potential political shifts and representation changes in the county of Cumbria, with a focus on Carlisle.
- Electoral Calculus, founded by Martin Baxter, is tracking Nigel Farage's party support and exploring potential rainbow coalition scenarios involving Restore Britain.
- Predicting shifts in the capital's political power, the event details a defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.