Electoral Calculus.
British political forecasting web site
- Reports this week
- 0
- Active events
- 1
- Connections
- 9
What's happening
One to three months ago
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Electoral Calculus, founded by Martin Baxter, is tracking Nigel Farage's party support and exploring potential rainbow coalition scenarios involving Restore Britain.Some support1 report1 development inside
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Predicting shifts in the capital's political power, the event details a defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.Some support1 report
Gone quiet
No new reports in 90+ daysNo events began in the chosen period. Widen it, or reset.
Around Electoral Calculus this week
News at the entities that move Electoral Calculus most-
House of Commons Mentioned togetherJosh Babarinde raised concerns in the House of Commons.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Scotland Mentioned togetherDevolved governments in England, Scotland, and Wales are reportedly creating specific versions of YFH.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Carlisle Shared contextSpeculative wetland housing co-operative planned for the River Eden floodplain in Carlisle.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Cumbria Mentioned togetherAn election was held on September 1, 2026, to determine the leader of the Cumbria Combined Authority.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Nigel Farage Mentioned togetherGovernment plans fast-track resettlement for refugees from Afghanistan and Mandatory Palestine, while Nigel Farage rejects legal routes.Moves Electoral Calculus
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Restore Britain Mentioned togetherRestore Britain and Great Yarmouth First have shared political goals and leadership, aiming to take full control of the entire council.Moves Electoral Calculus
Connections
The 8 strongest of 9, analyzed from the reporting. The bars show how strongly a change on one side reaches the other.-
Martin Baxter Structural
Martin Baxter founded Electoral Calculus.
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House of Commons Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used to model and forecast potential future compositions of the House of Commons.
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Scotland Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used to model and project potential election outcomes within the political context of Scotland.
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Carlisle Shared context
Electoral Calculus is being applied to the Carlisle region to project potential shifts in political representation.
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Cumbria Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is utilized as a conceptual model to analyze and predict the political shifts within the county of Cumbria.
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Nigel Farage Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus is used as a framework to track and model the support base and political viability of Nigel Farage.
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Restore Britain Mentioned together
Electoral Calculus included Restore Britain in its research.
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government Shared context
Electoral Calculus operates within the regulatory and political context of the government, specifically concerning tourism industry oversight.
History
Events by the month they beganJuly 2026
3 events- Models are underway regarding potential political shifts and representation changes in the county of Cumbria, with a focus on Carlisle.
- Electoral Calculus, founded by Martin Baxter, is tracking Nigel Farage's party support and exploring potential rainbow coalition scenarios involving Restore Britain.
- Predicting shifts in the capital's political power, the event details a defection from the Conservative Party to Reform UK.