ANZ raises Brent crude forecast to $105 amid tight physical market
What happened
ANZ raised its 31 December forecast for Brent crude to $105 per barrel, up from $95 per barrel. The bank stated that physical constraints are keeping the oil market tight and are unlikely to ease by year end. A material escalation in the Iran conflict could push Brent to $120 or higher.
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Why it matters
The forecast implies limited relief for crude-importing economies, with Japan, India, and South Korea being cited as most exposed through their currencies and trade balances. Higher oil prices are expected to keep upward pressure on headline inflation and bond yields across fuel-importing economies.
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Who's involved
- BrentCrude oil benchmark subject to the forecast
- Middle EastGeopolitical region whose instability influences Brent crude price and supply
- Goldman SachsInvestment bank providing market analysis on Brent crude oil
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- JapanSpeculative
Japan might increase energy import costs due to higher oil prices.
- IndiaSpeculative
India could increase import costs and fuel inflation due to higher oil prices.
- FEDSpeculative
The FED may accelerate inflation, pressuring toward tighter monetary policy.
- ExxonMobilSpeculative
ExxonMobil could increase operational revenue and profitability from the higher Brent forecast.
- Delta Air LinesSpeculative
Delta Air Lines might increase operational expenses due to higher fuel costs.
- ConocoPhillipsSpeculative
ConocoPhillips could increase operational revenue and profitability from the higher Brent forecast.
- AntofagastaSpeculative
Mining operations in Antofagasta may be sensitive to increased energy and fuel costs.
Keep exploring
The entities involved
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Australian
Belgian company specializing in ice cream and waffles
- Brent
Related events
- Brent crude prices eased while major financial institutions reported mixed quarterly profit results amid competition fears.
- Brent price increases are raising local production costs in South Africa, prompting commentary from Investec economists.
- Short-haul supplies are pushing Brent crude to record premiums while high freight costs widen spot discounts for African crude.
- EIA forecasts Brent price for Q4 while IEA notes global diesel prices eased, raising crude demand.