China Supports Military in Myanmar While Japan Pushes FATF Action
What happened
Beijing tacitly allowed three ethnic armed organizations to launch an offensive in Shan and Rakhine States in late 2023. China and Russia, which are principal arms suppliers, have stood by the military junta. Meanwhile, Japan is pressuring the Financial Action Task Force to remove Myanmar from its blacklist.
From thehindu.com
Why it matters
The military in Myanmar continues to wage war on its own people, exploiting a shifting geopolitical situation. Japan's diplomatic efforts target Myanmar's regulatory standing with the Financial Action Task Force. The conflict and instability are impacting regional stability in Southeast Asia.
From thehindu.com
Who's involved
- MyanmarThe geopolitical state experiencing conflict, military rule, and regulatory pressure.
- BeijingChina, which has been a principal arms supplier and allowed ethnic armed organizations to launch offensives.
- Kachin Independence OrganisationAn ethnic armed organization that launched an offensive in Shan and Rakhine States.
- Financial Action Task ForceThe intergovernmental organization that blacklists Myanmar due to concerns over illicit finance.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- Kachin Independence OrganisationSpeculative
China's support might secure the Kachin Independence Organisation's control over rare earth and jade resources, boosting revenue.
Possible ripples
Who this could reach next, traced step by step from the reporting. Possibilities worth considering, not forecasts.- Myanmar conflict may heighten border security risks for ThailandMyanmar conflict may heighten border security risks for ThailandPossible
- Malaysia may face increased pressure managing Rohingya refugees from MyanmarMalaysia may face increased pressure managing Rohingya refugees from MyanmarPossible
- KIO offensive in Rakhine States may challenge Arakan Army's controlKIO offensive in Rakhine States may threaten Arakan Army's operational territoryPossible
- How could Japan's pressure on the Financial Action Task Force affect the United Nations?The UN framework relies on FATF standards, which are being challenged by Myanmar's conflict.Possible
Keep exploring
The entities involved
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Myanmar
country in Southeast Asia
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Beijing
capital city of China
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Financial Action Task Force
intergovernmental organization to combat money laundering and terrorism financing
Related events
- US administrations, including Biden's and Trump's, engage in diplomatic outreach, sanctions, and talks regarding Myanmar.
- Narendra Modi and Julie Bishop engage in diplomatic efforts regarding Aung San Suu Kyi's case in Myanmar.
- The Arakan Army controls Rakhine state in Myanmar while Min Aung Hlaing visits China and was elected president of Myanmar.
- China's geopolitical tilt toward the Myanmar junta is highlighted alongside scheduled Trump-Xi talks and US concerns over transnational crime.
- Myanmar rare-earth is exported to China while the UN estimates conflict casualties, amid growing US interest.