Climate Extremes Threaten Cocoa Production in Ghana, Ecuador, and Indonesia

A study combining cocoa production records and daily weather data from Ghana, Ecuador, and Indonesia found that climate change is causing production variations in these tropical regions. Researchers found that unusually heavy rain during flowering and early pod development is consistently associated with lower yields. In Ghana, the combination of heavy wet-season rain and dry-season drought accounted for nearly 70 percent of year-to-year production variation.

The findings indicate that climate-risk planning for cocoa must focus on rainfall extremes rather than simply rising temperatures or average rainfall. Heavy rain can disrupt pollination, interfere with pod development, and encourage fungal diseases. This suggests that climate variability poses a substantial threat to cocoa harvests in these regions.