Research finds US protectionism affects emerging market currencies and trade costs

Research by Jantke de Boer and Stefan Eichler examined how anticipated American protectionism affects currency markets. The study found that emerging-market currencies can weaken before new tariffs are introduced, particularly in countries with strong export links to the United States. The research was published in Emerging Markets Review and highlighted by Ruhr University Bochum on October 15, 2026.

The findings suggest that political events abroad can change business costs—such as those related to buying equipment or servicing dollar debt—before any customs bills are officially changed. Protectionist policies, which include tariffs, can make foreign products more expensive and may raise costs for domestic businesses relying on imported materials.