Deloitte and NRF Forecast Holiday Spending Growth Amid Consumer Strain
What happened
Deloitte and the National Retail Federation released their annual predictions for the upcoming holiday season. The National Retail Federation anticipates a 4.2% gain, while Deloitte expects a 4% rise in per-household spending. However, the reports note that inflation, particularly in electronics, is limiting how far holiday budgets can stretch.
From mediapost.com
Why it matters
The forecasts suggest healthy top-line retail dollar gains, but they also highlight significant consumer polarization. Households earning over $200,000 plan to spend about five times more than those earning under $50,000, while many consumers report cutting back on discretionary spending.
Deloitte and National Retail Federation project market size and consumer trends.
From mediapost.com
Who's involved
- DeloitteMultinational professional services network that provided spending projections.
- National Retail FederationOrganization that provided the 4.2% gain forecast for the holiday season.
- Matthew ShayPresident of the National Retail Federation who referenced a 'resilient consumer'.
- Mark MathewsChief Economist for the National Retail Federation who anticipated pressure on unit volumes.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- AmazonSpeculative
Could see revenue impacted by the polarization of consumer spending across different income brackets.
- WalmartSpeculative
Could see revenue impacted by the polarization of consumer spending across different income brackets.
- Best BuySpeculative
Could face pressure on unit volumes in key electronics gifting categories due to inflation.
- General MillsSpeculative
Could see sales affected by rising food costs and budget constraints on consumer goods.
- Credit One BankSpeculative
May see consumer credit risk increase as 44% of adults reported having trouble paying bills.
Possible ripples
Who this could reach next, traced step by step from the reporting. Possibilities worth considering, not forecasts.- Consumer financial strain may increase credit risk for Credit One BankCredit One Bank may face increased credit risk due to consumer financial strainPossible
- Walmart may benefit as budget-conscious shoppers maintain spendingWalmart may benefit from budget-conscious households maintaining spending despite economic pressurePossible
- Target may face pressure from polarized consumer spending trendsTarget Corporation faces pressure from polarized consumer spending and budget constraints.Possible
- Budget constraints may curb General Mills' consumer goods salesBudget constraints and pressure on unit volumes may curb General Mills' consumer goods sales.Possible
- Holiday spending forecasts may pressure Best Buy's unit volumesPressure on unit volumes may challenge Best Buy during the holiday season.Possible
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The entities involved
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Deloitte
multinational professional services network founded in 1845
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National Retail Federation
organization