Political Prediction Markets See Surge in Midterm Election Wagering

More than $1.2 billion has been traded on Kalshi’s midterm markets for the 2026 election, surpassing the platform’s volume during the 2024 presidential election year, according to reports. Traders are wagering on individual House, Senate, and gubernatorial races, as well as which party will control each chamber come January 2027. In Maine, out-of-state traders are betting more on Troy Jackson than in-state traders are, while in Michigan, out-of-state traders are placing more money on Abdul El-Sayed.

Prediction markets shift as traders react to political events, offering a real-time view of how expectations are changing regarding the election. The volume of money flowing into the contest reflects how traders are sizing up the election and where their predictions diverge.