- El Nino has caused a series of interconnected crises since August 1st, including reduced shipping through the Panama Canal, a state of emergency in Peru, and severe droughts in Honduras and El Salvador.
- Honduras and El Salvador declared a regional crisis requiring emergency status due to severe drought fueled by El Nino.
El Niño strengthens, driving drought and food insecurity across Central America
What happened
The Pan American Health Organization reports that El Niño continues to strengthen, with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration estimating a greater than 90% probability of reaching “very strong” intensity between late 2026 and early 2027. Impacts are already being seen in the region, including drought and food insecurity. Over 5.2 million people across the region are affected, exposed, or facing acute food insecurity.
Why it matters
The strengthening El Niño is causing severe drought and food insecurity in Central America. PAHO notes that these impacts affect people's health, including food insecurity, and highlight that over 5.2 million people are exposed to these risks.
Honduras and El Salvador declared a regional crisis requiring emergency status due to severe drought fueled by El Niño, which has also caused reduced shipping through the Panama Canal and a state of emergency in Peru.
Who's involved
- HondurasSovereign state in Central America experiencing drought impacts.
- El SalvadorSovereign state in Central America facing emergency alerts due to El Niño.
- GuatemalaSovereign state in Central America facing regional climate shock.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- HondurasSpeculative
Agricultural production might face reduced revenue due to drought impacts in the Dry Corridor.
- El SalvadorSpeculative
Food insecurity could increase import costs for essential goods.
- GuatemalaSpeculative
Regional commodity supply may decrease due to climate shock impacting agricultural production.
Keep exploring
The entities involved
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Honduras
sovereign state in Central America
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El Salvador
sovereign state in Central America
Related events
- Drought and climate change caused crop failure in the agricultural sector of Honduras.
- El Nino hits crops in El Salvador, while drought affects agricultural output and inflation in Colombia.
- El Nino causes severe drought in El Salvador, while weather patterns prompt emergency declarations in California.
- Central America is grappling with a complex crisis involving ongoing gang violence, security issues, and the severe impacts of climate change, including famine and drought.
- NEMO is preparing for droughts in El Salvador, coordinating with the Ministry of Agriculture under the leadership of National Emergency Coordinator Daniel Mendez.