El Niño Drives Heightened Fire Risk Across Australian States

The Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council (AFAC) released its Spring 2026 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook on August 19, identifying heightened fire risk across several parts of Australia, including northern and southeastern New South Wales, southeast Queensland, northeastern Tasmania, and parts of Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, and the Northern Territory. This risk is driven by a combination of dry conditions in the east and increased fuel loads in central and northern Australia. Bureau of Meteorology data supports this, showing the Southern Oscillation Index remains strongly negative, while models forecast the tropical Pacific to continue warming through spring, likely peaking in late spring or summer, with the El Niño event expected to persist into autumn 2027.

The confluence of El Niño and adverse weather patterns is creating conditions of high fire risk in key agricultural and regional areas. This outlook is compounded by WFI Insurance reporting that its rural book saw 73 haystack fire claims in its most recent financial year, with individual losses ranging from thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars.