El Niño Threatens Agricultural Yields in Southeast Asia
What happened
A strengthening super El Niño is threatening agricultural production across major food-producing regions, including India, Vietnam, and Thailand. The UK Government Office for Science identified potential risks to imported food supplies, specifically mentioning rice, coffee, and cocoa. Rice is a particular concern, as India, Thailand, and Vietnam are all major producers that could face weather-related disruption, reducing yields or exports.
From ibtimes.co.uk
Why it matters
If multiple suppliers are affected simultaneously, UK importers may face fewer alternatives when sourcing rice, which could put upward pressure on prices. The reports also note that disruption in coffee and cocoa production may be harder to offset by sourcing supplies elsewhere, potentially affecting consumer price inflation.
From ibtimes.co.uk
Who's involved
- El NiñoThe climate pattern whose strengthening is threatening agricultural production.
- VietnamA major producer of rice and other crops potentially affected by weather disruption.
- ThailandA major producer of rice and other crops potentially affected by weather disruption.
- NOAAThe organization that actively monitors and forecasts the El Niño climate pattern.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- ThailandSpeculative
Weather disruption could threaten agricultural yields and exports in Thailand.
- VietnamSpeculative
Weather disruption could threaten agricultural yields and exports in Vietnam.
- RICESpeculative
Market prices could be pressured due to potential disruptions in major rice production.
- PhilippinesSpeculative
Import costs could increase for the Philippines due to global rice supply disruption.
- SingaporeSpeculative
Trade risk and logistics costs could increase for Singapore due to regional agricultural disruption.
The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment could need to manage climate-driven agricultural production failures.
Keep exploring
The entities involved
Related events
- El Niño is threatening rice yields and causing drought and flooding in the Philippines.
- Food insecurity is rising due to the confluence of El Niño, agricultural threats in India, and disruptions caused by wildfires in Indonesia and the war in Iran.
- Extreme climate patterns, including El Niño and La Niña, are causing shared challenges regarding food security and agricultural yields in Latin America and the Caribbean.
- Severe droughts linked to El Niño threaten agriculture in Raichur.
- The Reserve Bank of India's actions, including rate cuts, are being influenced by global economic pressures stemming from the West Asia conflict and the potential impacts of El Niño on agriculture.