El Nino Drought Slows India's Milk Production Growth Forecast
What happened
The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service forecasts that India's milk production growth will slow to 2% in 2027, reaching 226.5 million tonnes. This slowdown is attributed to El Nino-induced drought conditions, which are expected to limit feed and fodder availability and affect animal productivity. Higher domestic prices and tight supplies are also likely to limit dairy exports, with skimmed milk powder exports forecast to halve in 2027.
Why it matters
The drought conditions are expected to constrain feed availability, impacting animal productivity and slowing milk output growth in India. As the world’s largest milk consumer, India’s dairy sector faces supply constraints that could drive higher domestic prices and limit export revenue.
A drought is currently underway, driven by climate change and the effects of El Nino.
Who's involved
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- HaryanaSpeculative
Regional agricultural output might face increased costs due to feed constraints.
- IndiaSpeculative
The national supply chain could face shocks due to constrained feed availability.
- Uttar PradeshSpeculative
Direct supply chain impacts may occur from feed constraints in this major dairy state.
- OdishaSpeculative
Direct supply chain impacts may occur from feed constraints in this major dairy state.
- Reserve Bank of IndiaSpeculative
Inflation might be pressured by supply constraints driving higher domestic prices in the dairy sector.
Possible ripples
Who this could reach next, traced step by step from the reporting. Possibilities worth considering, not forecasts.- El Nino drought may constrain milk production in Uttar PradeshUttar Pradesh's milk output may slow due to feed shortages from El Nino drought.Possible
- Dairy supply constraints may pressure inflation targets for RBIDairy supply constraints may pressure inflation targets monitored by the Reserve Bank of IndiaPossible
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The entities involved
Related events
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- El Niño drives heat waves and drought risk, with Pacific Ocean conditions affecting global weather patterns across regions including California, Colorado, and the Indian Ocean.