- War and weather issues are driving up energy costs, inflation, and affecting agricultural supply.
- War and harvest failures are driving up energy and food prices, threatening harvests in Africa and South America.
Global Conflicts and El Niño Threaten Food and Fuel Supply in South Africa
What happened
Geopolitical conflicts, including the war between Russia and Ukraine and the war between the United States and Iran, have impacted global fuel costs and access to quality seeds and fertilizer. A strong El Niño warning is compounding these global supply chain risks. These factors, alongside climate shocks, affect resilient food production in South Africa.
From dailymaverick.co.za
Why it matters
The disruption of fuel supply chains and spikes in global oil prices directly affect food supply chains. This situation, combined with climate shocks, drives up energy and food prices, threatening agricultural supply and food security in South Africa.
War and harvest failures are currently driving up energy and food prices, which threatens harvests across Africa and South America.
From dailymaverick.co.za
Who's involved
- South AfricaThe country facing impacts from global supply chain risks and climate shocks.
- El NiñoThe climate pattern consistently observed to cause drought and agricultural impacts in South Africa.
- agricultureThe sector affected by restricted seed/fertilizer access and climate threats.
- ShopriteA major food retailer potentially affected by food price inflation.
- South African Weather ServiceThe meteorological service monitoring climate risk changes due to El Niño.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- EskomSpeculative
Eskom might see increased operational and logistics costs due to global fuel cost spikes.
- ShopriteSpeculative
Shoprite might face increased retail costs and changes in consumer demand due to food price inflation.
- South AfricaSpeculative
South Africa might experience increased food price inflation and threats to food security.
Possible ripples
Who this could reach next, traced step by step from the reporting. Possibilities worth considering, not forecasts.- The South African Reserve Bank may need to adjust monetary policy to manage rising inflationThe South African Reserve Bank may need to adjust monetary policy to manage rising inflation.Likely
- Strong El Niño warning may force South African Weather Service to adjust forecastsSouth African Weather Service may need to adjust forecasts due to strong El Niño warningLikely
- Eskom may face higher costs from global fuel price spikesEskom may face increased operational and logistics costs due to global fuel price spikesLikely
- Shoprite's retail costs may rise due to global fuel and input shortagesShoprite's retail costs may rise due to global fuel and input shortagesPossible
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The entities involved
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South Africa
country in southern Africa
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El Niño
Spanish rap artist
Related events
- Trump's tariffs and the Iran conflict are driving up costs, while El Niño adds to global supply chain disruptions affecting companies like Costco.
- Industry groups highlight rising food and energy costs due to El Niño and conflict in Iran, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis.
- IMD reports rainfall deficit in India as climate phenomenon alters weather patterns, alongside ongoing US-Iran war disruptions.