- Goldman Sachs is providing forecasts on Brent price movements following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint.
- Institutional desks warned of tightening physical markets, citing Middle East conflicts as a market shock and warning of Russia-Ukraine escalation risks.
- Conflict in the Middle East is driving Brent crude prices, with Goldman Sachs analysts involved in the market commentary.
- Geopolitical standoff drives oil price increases, with market adaptation tracked by financial institutions amid infrastructure threats near Oman.
Goldman Sachs: Crude Risk Premiums Exceed Russia-Ukraine War Peaks
- Reports
- 3
- Developments
- 1
- Repetition
- 67%
New informationRepeats or wire copies
What happened
Goldman Sachs research indicates that the average risk premium embedded in Brent crude futures term spreads reached $22 a barrel in September 2026. This level exceeded the peak seen during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. Despite Persian Gulf oil exports recovering to 2025 average levels, Brent crude prices remain above $100 a barrel. This is attributed to global observable oil inventories falling to near-historic lows since 2017, combined with geopolitical tensions and financial market hedging needs.
From peakoil.com
Why it matters
The sustained high crude risk premiums and low global inventories keep prices well supported despite normalizing supply. These price movements influence Brent crude, which in turn affects European economic indicators and global inflation. The analysis suggests that geopolitical tensions are jointly pushing these risk premiums higher.
Geopolitical standoffs are driving oil price increases, with market adaptation being tracked by financial institutions amid infrastructure threats near Oman.
From peakoil.com
Who's involved
- Goldman SachsProvided market analysis and forecasts on Brent crude oil.
- BrentThe benchmark crude oil whose pricing and risk premiums are analyzed.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- ExxonMobilSpeculative
Might see operational margins and revenue boost from sustained high Brent crude prices.
- Delta Air LinesSpeculative
Could face increased operational fuel costs due to high Brent crude prices.
- inflationSpeculative
May accelerate globally due to sustained high Brent prices and risk premiums.
- EuropeSpeculative
Could experience pressure on economic indicators and inflation from high energy costs.
- IraqSpeculative
Might see an increase in oil export revenue for the state.
- Saudi ArabiaSpeculative
Could benefit from increased oil export revenue for the state.
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The entities involved
- Brent
-
Goldman Sachs
American investment bank
Related events
- Russia's role in the Ukraine war impacts global flows, while historical demand patterns in the Northeast inform current market risks.
- Goldman Sachs dismissed the impact of Russian supply issues, while European reserve releases may lower diesel prices.
- Risk premium drives Brent crude prices higher as talks on route access and sanctions relief remain stuck.
- Geopolitical tensions, including US/Iran fighting and Venezuelan expansion, are affecting crude supply and driving up Brent price forecasts from Goldman Sachs.
- Brent crude price influences market expectations, involving Meta.