IEA Forecasts Global Coal Demand Surge Amid Geopolitical and Climate Factors
What happened
The International Energy Agency forecasts that global coal demand will climb 1.2% to reach a record 8.94 billion tonnes in 2026. This surge is attributed to geopolitical disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and adverse weather conditions. High global gas prices and the need to fill gaps left by reduced hydropower output are driving energy producers and utilities to switch back to coal.
Why it matters
The reliance on coal is increasing as energy markets respond to supply chain issues in global gas flows. The combination of soaring cooling demands due to El Niño and weaker renewable energy output has created a strong environment for coal consumption.
Who's involved
- International Energy AgencyInternational Energy Agency issuing global energy forecasts and reports
- IndiaMajor contributor to global coal consumption
- ChinaDominant force in global coal consumption
- HormuzGeopolitical choke point whose operational status is monitored by the IEA
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- Southeast AsiaSpeculative
The region could benefit from the global shift to coal due to gas price hikes.
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The entities involved
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International Energy Agency
autonomous intergovernmental organisation
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El Niño
Spanish rap artist
Related events
- IEA forecasts a global increase in coal demand, noting that rising natural gas prices are boosting coal usage.
- IEA reports on oil demand decline in the Middle East region.
- IEA tracks coal's role in China's economy while NDRC mandates strengthening coal use, contrasting with US coal fleet retirements.
- IEA reports on energy shocks originating from the Middle East and their impact on Europe's electricity demand.
- US seeks to reduce reliance on Chinese mineral dominance while IEA projects global demand growth driven by clean energy.