Rystad Energy: Strait of Hormuz Oil Shipments Expected to Recover, But Not Normalize

Rystad Energy, in a report led by Jorge León, expects oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually recover in 2027. The company noted that these volumes will fall short of pre-conflict levels. Despite the resumption of shipping, Rystad Energy remarked that the number of attacks on commercial vessels has risen significantly and the cost of maritime transport has surged.

The analysis suggests that while a limited agreement between the U.S. and Iran could be reached by the first half of 2027, the core points of contention between the two sides would remain unresolved. Total crude oil exports from Persian Gulf nations averaged nearly 12 million barrels per day in September and October, which is substantially below the pre-war level of approximately 18 million barrels per day.