Milliman projects US insurance market trends, noting falling rates

Milliman provided projections for the US insurance market, noting that workers’ compensation remains a profitable line in property and casualty insurance. The forecast for 2026 shows a net combined ratio of 92.7, and net written premium is expected to fall 0.7% in 2026 before remaining broadly flat through 2028. In Minnesota, the state’s average pure premium rate for 2026 is 44% below 2004 levels, and its assigned risk plan will cut average premium levels by 3.8% starting January 1, 2027.

As base rates fall across the market, the difference in premiums paid by employers increasingly depends on their individual safety records. For large employers, the experience modification factor compares actual claims against expected claims for their industry and size, determining premium credits or surcharges.