Morgan Stanley Predicts South African Rate Hike Amid Oil Price Pressure
What happened
Morgan Stanley has changed its forecast for South African interest rates, now expecting the central bank to raise borrowing costs this week. Analysts Andrea Masia and Arnav Gupta predict the South African Reserve Bank will increase its policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% on September 23, reversing a previous call for the bank to hold rates steady.
From news24.com
Why it matters
The shift in view stems from renewed oil price pressure, which Morgan Stanley expects will delay inflation's return to the 3% target. The firm argues that sustained energy price pressures could keep inflation above target for a prolonged period, increasing the risk of unanchored inflation expectations.
From news24.com
Who's involved
- Morgan StanleyIssued the forecast and analysis regarding South African interest rates.
- South AfricaThe country whose central bank is expected to raise borrowing costs.
- BrentThe crude market whose renewed price pressure is driving the forecast.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- Energy TransferSpeculative
Higher oil prices could increase energy sector revenue for Energy Transfer.
How this reaches others
Each traced step by step, with the reporting behind itKeep exploring
The entities involved
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Morgan Stanley
U.S. investment bank