Analyst Updates Senate Election Odds Using Betting Market Data
What happened
Thomas Miller, a data scientist, has updated his methodology to handicap Senate elections in Georgia. He calculates the percentage chance that all 35 seats will go blue or red in real time, starting his calculations by using betting odds from Kalshi and Polymarket, which have the biggest volumes. Miller uses proprietary algorithms to make statistical adjustments to the prices posted on these sites.
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Why it matters
The updated odds reflect the political rivalry between candidates like Jon Ossoff and Donald Trump. These real-time probability calculations provide a new metric for tracking electoral viability in the state of Georgia.
In Georgia, candidates are campaigning for the Senate seat, with endorsements from major political figures.
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Who's involved
- Donald TrumpAmerican businessman and politician whose actions drive political odds
- Jon OssoffAmerican politician who is contesting the U.S. Senate race in Georgia
- GeorgiaState of the United States of America where Jon Ossoff serves as a political representative
Possible ripples
Who this could reach next, traced step by step from the reporting. Possibilities worth considering, not forecasts.- Updated odds may shift focus of CNN's political coverageUpdated odds may shift focus of CNN's political coverageLikely
- Mike Collins's Senate race viability may shift with market odds updatesMike Collins's Senate race viability may shift with market odds updatesPossible
- Mike Collins's Senate race viability may shift amid changing political oddsMike Collins's Senate race viability may shift amid changing political oddsPossible
- Georgia Senate odds shift, potentially impacting DNC strategyIncreased odds of Democratic success in Georgia may shift DNC resource allocationPossible
Keep exploring
Part of
Georgia Senate race: Candidates battle over policy and national endorsementsAlso in this story
- Jon Ossoff noted that Donald Trump Jr. holds a financial stake in a venture firm focused on AI.
- Brian Kemp endorsed Mike Collins in the Georgia Senate race, amidst attacks on Jon Ossoff's immigration record.
- Adam Hamilton is seeking a U.S. Senate seat through the election process in Georgia.
- Candidates in Georgia are addressing the cost of living while voters worry about prices due to the Iran standoff.
The entities involved
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Jon Ossoff
American politician and filmmaker (born 1987)
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Harris
researcher
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Donald Trump
American businessman and politician (born 1946), President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)