- El Nino is causing prolonged heatwaves and low rainfall in Southeast Asia, impacting global supply chains and weather patterns worldwide.
- El Niño is affecting the wider Asia-Pacific region, impacting the Philippines, and being monitored by the World Meteorological Organization.
PSA projects 15% palay production decline in Philippines due to El Niño
What happened
The Philippine Statistics Authority projected that palay production in the Philippines would decline by 15 percent, reaching around 3.9 million metric tons in the third quarter of this year. The PSA attributed this decline to the onset of El Niño, though the report noted this projection lacked plausibility given recent heavy monsoon rains. A severe El Niño is predicted to affect the country from late 2026 through April 2027.
From manilatimes.net
Why it matters
The anticipated production shortfall, combined with rising fertilizer and fuel prices resulting from the Middle East war, is expected to cause a serious supply shortage. This situation threatens national food security and could drive food price inflation in the Philippines.
El Niño is affecting the wider Asia-Pacific region, causing prolonged heatwaves and low rainfall in Southeast Asia and impacting global supply chains.
From manilatimes.net
Who's involved
- El NiñoClimate phenomenon cited as the cause of the projected production decline.
- PhilippinesThe country where the palay production decline is projected.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- RICESpeculative
RICE might face a severe supply shock and price risk due to the predicted palay production decline.
- Bangko Sentral ng PilipinasSpeculative
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas could face pressure on monetary policy as the rice shortfall drives food price inflation.
- PhilippinesSpeculative
The Philippines may face threats to national food security and inflation from the climate-driven supply shock.
- ThailandSpeculative
Thailand might see changes in market access for its products due to import restrictions in the Philippines.
- VietnamSpeculative
Vietnam might see changes in market access for its products due to import restrictions in the Philippines.
Keep exploring
Part of
El Niño is affecting the wider Asia-Pacific region, impacting the Philippines, and being monitored by the World Meteorological Organization.Also in this story
- El Niño peak tested Macau’s drainage capacity on August 1, 2026.
- El Niño is affecting hydropower operations in the region involving Luzon and Mindanao.
- Storms are battering coastal regions of China and moving across the Philippines, driven by the El Niño pattern.
- El Niño threatens coconut productivity and exports in the Philippines, managed by the Philippine Coconut Authority.
The entities involved
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El Niño
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Related events
- PSA reports unemployment data in Manila, showing agriculture and forestry shed 905,000 jobs in the Philippines.
- El Niño is expected to cause below normal rainfall in the Philippines, according to PAGASA.
- El Niño is causing drier conditions in Mindanao, with PAGASA utilizing specialists for weather reporting.
- Climate event strains domestic food production capacity while the central bank raises rates to combat inflation in the Philippines.
- Growing risk of severe El Niño is being reported in Venezuela.