Strengthening El Niño Linked to Diverging Wildfire Risk Across U.S.

A strengthening El Niño climate pattern could increase wildfire risk in parts of the northern United States, while simultaneously lowering the threat across much of the South and Southwest. Research published this year by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences shows that an autumn El Niño could increase fire danger in some regions into next spring and summer, and reduce it in others.

The climate phenomenon is strengthening, with central Pacific sea surface temperatures approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above average. This pattern creates a dividing line between increased fire danger in the northern U.S. and reduced danger further south, impacting regional resource management and insurance costs.