Standard Bank lowers South Africa growth forecast citing geopolitical risks
What happened
Standard Bank cut its growth forecast for South Africa this year from 1.8% to 1%, citing geopolitical events as the primary cause. The bank also noted that interest rate increases occurred twice this year, contrary to expectations of two cuts. The bank forecasts growth of about 1.3% next year and around 2% by 2028.
From cbn.co.za
Why it matters
The forecast adjustment reflects concerns over global events, such as oil price effects on inflation, despite the structural fundamentals of South Africa appearing sound. The analyst noted that the current Government of National Unity is holding, which provides a reason for optimism.
A collection of economic developments regarding South Africa's status, including its growth outlook, is influenced by international bodies and geopolitical factors.
From cbn.co.za
Who's involved
- Standard BankProvided growth forecasts and commentary on South Africa's economic outlook
- South AfricaThe country whose economic growth forecasts were adjusted
- Western CapeThe region to which the analyst provided a specific upbeat outlook
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- Western CapeSpeculative
Regional exporters in the Western Cape might see their sales supported by the analyst's upbeat outlook.
- AfricaSpeculative
Exports across Africa might see competitiveness reduced due to national inflation and interest rate hikes.
- ItalySpeculative
Exports to Italy might see competitiveness reduced due to national inflation and interest rate hikes.
- EuropeSpeculative
Exports to Europe might see competitiveness reduced due to national inflation and interest rate hikes.
- Middle EastSpeculative
Exports to the Middle East might see competitiveness reduced due to national inflation and interest rate hikes.
Keep exploring
Part of
A collection of economic developments regarding South Africa's status (credit rating, FATF status, growth outlook) influenced by international bodies (World Bank, FATF, S&P Global) and geopolitical factors (Middle East conflict, Sub-Saharan Africa average).Also in this story
- The World Bank released a new industrial policy for South Africa on September 1, 2026.
- The World Bank lent money to Eskom for the Medupi project, while Eskom produces 80% of South Africa's electricity.
- University of Cape Town faces funding loss due to resolutions on Israeli policy, reflecting global economic status and South Africa's challenges.
- South Africa's credit rating was upgraded due to economic improvements, driven by government initiatives.
The entities involved
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South Africa
country in southern Africa
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Standard Bank
one of South Africa's largest financial services groups
Nothing else this week.
Related events
- Nedbank's loan book reflects current market trends within South Africa.
- Rising inflation rates are compelling the South African Reserve Bank to consider interest rate hikes.
- The South African Reserve Bank Governor announced a policy rate increase amid global supply chain disruptions and war-driven inflation.
- South Africa is noted as representing only a small fraction of global markets.