TD Forecasts Show Provincial Economic Divide Amid Tariffs and Oil Price Surge
What happened
TD Economics forecasts show Newfoundland and Labrador is projected to grow its real gross domestic product by 4.5%, significantly outpacing Alberta's 2.3% growth. This strong performance is linked to soaring crude prices amid the Iran war, which has boosted oil and gas extraction in Newfoundland and Labrador. Conversely, Quebec is forecast to have the lowest GDP growth at 0.5%, having been disproportionately affected by new U.S. tariffs and export bans implemented by Donald Trump.
From financialpost.com
Why it matters
The reports indicate a widening economic gap between provinces that produce commodities and those that manufacture goods. Instability in the Middle East is driving crude price increases, which benefits commodity producers, while trade barriers imposed by Donald Trump are negatively impacting manufacturing sectors like Quebec.
From financialpost.com
Who's involved
- TD EconomicsProvides economic forecasts and analysis on provincial performance.
- Newfoundland and LabradorExpected to see high GDP growth driven by oil and gas extraction.
- QuebecForecasted to have the lowest GDP growth due to trade barriers.
- Donald TrumpImplemented U.S. tariffs and export bans affecting Quebec's manufacturing sector.
- Middle EastGeopolitical instability is causing crude prices to soar.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- QuebecSpeculative
Quebec might face reduced revenue and job losses due to new U.S. tariffs and export bans.
- Newfoundland and LabradorSpeculative
Newfoundland and Labrador could see increased corporate profits and government revenues from the surge in oil and gas extraction.
- Middle EastSpeculative
The Middle East instability may drive higher energy import costs for global consumers.
- AlbertaSpeculative
Alberta might see slower GDP growth compared to provinces focused on commodity production.
Keep exploring
The entities involved
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TD Economics
Nothing else this week.
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Middle East
geopolitical region encompassing Egypt and most of Western Asia, including Iran
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Quebec
province of Canada
Related events
- TD Economics provided an outlook on the Canadian economy, forecasting GDP, employment, and inflation rates.
- Global oil prices are impacting Canadian energy exports, while the Iran conflict continues to raise regional tensions.
- Supply concerns are driving up crude oil prices while U.S. Treasury yields hit multiyear highs, alongside positive wholesale sales and trade surplus growth.
- Tariffs are impacting oil industry equipment and softening north-south trade traffic between provinces.
- Trump's trade war drags on, impacting Canadian views and specifically affecting the outcome of the election in Quebec.