IEA projects 2.5% drop in global oil demand for 2026
What happened
The International Energy Agency projects that worldwide oil demand will fall 2.5 percent in 2026 compared with last year. This sharp reversal follows global oil and gas use tumbling due to production and shipping route disruptions caused by the war with Iran.
From rawstory.com
Why it matters
The decline in demand puts global fossil fuel emissions on pace for their first yearly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. Economists agree that the longer the energy crisis lasts, the more likely consumers and businesses are to make lasting changes, such as shifting to hybrids and electric vehicles.
Global oil market dynamics are being shaped by divergent views on demand forecasts, US policy shifts under the Trump administration, slower EV uptake in Europe, and major export cuts from Gulf producers due to the Iran war.
From rawstory.com
Who's involved
- International Energy AgencyModeling global energy demand and reporting on market trends
- Donald TrumpHis administration's policies and the war with Iran are cited as drivers of market change
- Middle EastThe geopolitical region cited as the source of production and shipping disruptions
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- Middle EastSpeculative
The ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East could affect shipping routes and production supply.
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Part of
Global oil market dynamics are being shaped by divergent views on demand forecasts, US policy shifts under the Trump administration, slower EV uptake in Europe, and major export cuts from Gulf producers due to the Iran war.Also in this story
- Trump's administration is implementing broad trade barriers and tariffs on clean technology, affecting global energy transition goals.
- Impasse in negotiations and rising diesel prices are straining the energy industry across Europe and the Middle East.
- Kyiv targeted southern ports, including Novorossiysk, while OPEC+ adhered to quotas and production decline was commented on by Alexander Novak.
- OPEC considers OECD demand expectations in its forecasts.
The entities involved
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International Energy Agency
autonomous intergovernmental organisation
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DNV
international certification body and classification society
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Donald Trump
American businessman and politician (born 1946), President of the United States (2017–2021; since 2025)
Related events
- The Trump administration imposed financial sanctions on Iranian targets amid ongoing global fuel supply disruptions.
- Global oil trade disruption affects energy markets due to geopolitical shifts and the impact of the US energy agenda.
- US executive actions are reported to be affecting global markets and energy prices.
- The three political figures are discussing the global gas market tightness caused by the Iran issues, policy disagreements on energy management, and a scheduled meeting at the UN General Assembly.
- The administration eliminated tough fuel-economy rules.