Cocoa Supply Shock Drives Price Spike in West Africa

What happened

Some supportReported by 1 outlet

The price of cocoa on futures exchanges briefly reached US$12,000 per tonne in April 2024, significantly higher than the US$2,500 average of the preceding decade. This price surge occurred despite no change in consumer demand. The increase was driven by a severe supply shortage in West Africa, where Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together grow about 60 per cent of the world’s cocoa beans, experienced poor growing seasons.

From scienceblog.com

Why it matters

Some supportBrind's analysis of the reports

The combined crop shortfall from Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire was approximately 500,000 tonnes below world expectations. This concentration of global cocoa supply in a narrow equatorial belt means that poor harvests in West Africa immediately affect the global chocolate industry and commodity markets.

Nigeria and Indonesia are currently deepening bilateral cooperation, with Indonesia seeking to increase investment in Nigeria's oil and gas sector.

From scienceblog.com

Who's involved

GhanaMajor producer of cocoa beans experiencing a 22-year low harvest

Who could feel it

Possible knock-on effects

These are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.

GhanaSpeculative
Ghana might see its primary export revenue severely impacted by the low harvest of 425,000 tonnes.
finance ministrySpeculative
The finance ministry might need to adjust fiscal planning due to the market price shock affecting national export revenue.

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Nigeria and Indonesia are deepening bilateral cooperation, with Indonesia seeking to increase investment in Nigeria's oil and gas sector. All 2 developments