ING Analysis Details Regional Trade and Inflation Risks for CIS Nations
What happened
An economic analysis by ING reviewed four CIS countries, including Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. The report noted that approximately 45% of Azerbaijan’s imports originate from developed countries and the Middle East. ING also stated that a 10% increase in global food prices could raise inflation in Azerbaijan and the other three countries by about 1.5–2 percentage points.
From en.apa.az
Why it matters
The analysis suggests that higher global oil prices strengthen Azerbaijan’s economic resilience, while the stable exchange rate of the manat limits imported inflation. However, the high reliance on external imports increases the country’s sensitivity to external price increases.
Bilateral trade between Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries is deepening, with Azerbaijani non-oil products strengthening markets.
From en.apa.az
Who's involved
- AzerbaijanSubject of the economic analysis, noted for its import structure and oil price resilience.
- UzbekistanOne of the Central Asian countries included in the ING economic analysis.
- KazakhstanOne of the Central Asian countries included in the ING economic analysis.
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- AzerbaijanSpeculative
Higher oil prices could raise Azerbaijan’s annual export revenues by an amount equivalent to 2–4% of GDP.
- IndiaSpeculative
Higher global oil prices might increase import costs for energy-dependent economies.
- KazMunayGasSpeculative
Higher global oil prices could increase the revenue of the state-owned oil company of Kazakhstan.
- ShellSpeculative
Higher global oil prices may boost revenue and profitability for multinational oil and gas companies.
- ExxonMobilSpeculative
Higher global oil prices could increase the revenue of the American multinational oil and gas corporation.
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The entities involved
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Azerbaijan
country in the Caucasus in Eastern Europe and Western Asia
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Uzbekistan
sovereign state in Central Asia
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Kazakhstan
sovereign state in Eastern Europe and Central Asia
Related events
- Kazakhstan is importing aviation fuel from China and considering fuel imports from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan.
- Talks focused on expanding trade, investment, and industrial cooperation between Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan.
- Azerbaijan discussed expanding bilateral trade and investment opportunities.
- Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan increased their bilateral trade turnover by 33% during a cooperation forum in Bishkek.
- Azerbaijan facilitates energy transit and green energy cooperation with Central Asian neighbors, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan.