Research Highlights Seasonal Stock Market Patterns in Midterm Election Years

A report examined historical S&P 500 performance during midterm election years since 1950. The research found that October has historically been the best-performing month, averaging a 3% gain, while November ranks second, averaging a 2.7% gain. Furthermore, UBS research indicated that during midterm election years, S&P 500 returns averaged about 6% from September through year-end, compared to 4% in non-midterm years.

The findings suggest a predictable seasonal pattern in U.S. equities during midterm election cycles. The UBS report noted that returns through March during these years averaged approximately 14%, though negative returns were recorded in 1978, 2002, and 2018.