Intercontinental Exchange Projects New Wave of ARM Resets in 2027

Andy Walden, head of mortgage and housing market research at Intercontinental Exchange, reported that a new wave of adjustable-rate mortgage resets is expected to arrive in 2027. ICE data shows there are currently 3.1 million active first-lien ARMs, which represents the highest level in 5 1/2 years. Resets are projected to reach 186,020 in 2027, rising from 148,000 in 2026.

The report indicates that while the volume of ARMs is high, they account for only 5.6% of all active mortgages, and most newer ARMs have not yet begun adjusting. The projections for 2027 and 2028 provide insight into future mortgage payment dynamics, though the report states this wave does not pose a systemic threat to the broader U.S. economy.