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From Bilateral Trade Between Pakistan and Afghanistan Reaches Nearly $2 Billion

How could increased trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan affect China?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Increased trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan may stabilize regional economy The rise in bilateral trade to nearly $2 billion in fiscal 2024–25 suggests a degree of economic incentive and flow between Pakistan and Afghanistan. This economic activity helps counteract the negative impact of border closures, which U.N. monitors estimated cost the Afghan economy about $1 million a day. Improved regional economic stability creates a more favorable environment for large-scale regional infrastructure projects and diplomatic engagement, areas where China has maintained a presence, including hosting a mediation round in Urumqi.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Yesterday
Effect
Mild positive
How direct
3 steps, 1 inferred by Brind
When
Over the long term
The story
Still developing

How it reaches China

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • Bilateral trade between Islamabad and Kabul reached nearly $2 billion in fiscal 2024–25.eurasiareview.com
  • Pakistani exports to Afghanistan rose 38.68 percent to $773.9 million.eurasiareview.com
  • U.N. monitors estimated that border closures cost the Afghan economy about $1 million a day.eurasiareview.com
  • China hosted a round in Urumqi in April regarding mediation efforts.eurasiareview.com

Why it matters

For China, which maintains deep cooperation with Pakistan and has a significant strategic interest in the stability of Central and South Asia, increased economic activity in the region is a positive indicator. This trade volume suggests a degree of functional economic engagement between the two neighbors, which is a prerequisite for the successful implementation and maintenance of large-scale regional infrastructure projects.

This economic flow occurs amid significant geopolitical tension, as Pakistan insists that dialogue with the Taliban requires a verifiable mechanism to end terrorist attacks from Afghan soil. The trade volume, therefore, represents a complex balance between economic necessity and ongoing security disputes.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the increased trade volume translate into sustained diplomatic cooperation between Pakistan and Afghanistan?
  • How will the current security situation, including TTP attacks, affect the long-term viability of regional economic corridors?

What would change this answer

The Taliban regime successfully dismantles TTP infrastructure and restricts terrorist movement across the border.The trade volume could increase significantly and become more stable, solidifying the positive economic environment for regional partners like China.
Cross-border incidents and Pakistani strikes continue to escalate.The increased trade volume could be volatile, potentially leading to sudden disruptions and undermining the stability benefits for regional investors.

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The full eventBilateral Trade Between Pakistan and Afghanistan Reaches Nearly $2 Billion Everything aboutChina

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.