Part of Apple faces intense competition from rivals like OpenAI, Google, and Meta in the generative AI race, while Adobe also advances its AI capabilities.

How could Brandon Thomas's free apps be affecting the demand for Adobe Stock?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Free AI apps may reduce demand for Adobe Stock assets Brandon Thomas released 13 free, open-source apps, including PhotoCraft and WordCraft, which replicate core functionalities of Adobe and Microsoft programs. These apps challenge the legacy tech pricing model, offering subscription-weary consumers a free alternative. Since Adobe Stock is an integrated asset library and revenue stream essential to Adobe's Creative Cloud ecosystem, a shift in consumer preference toward free alternatives could plausibly reduce the demand for these integrated assets.

Reported by 2 independent outlets Written Oct 14

Effect: Mild negative
How direct: Brind's reasoning
When: Within weeks
The story: Gone quiet

How it reaches Adobe Stock

Reported by news outletsBrind's reasoning

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

Brandon Thomas released 13 free, open-source apps on his website, called ArtCraft.cnet.com
These apps aim to replicate the core functionalities of Adobe and Microsoft programs, including Photoshop, Word and PowerPoint.cnet.com
ArtCraft’s apps allow individual users to avoid handing over their cash and data to a major tech company.cnet.com
Adobe Stock is a core, integrated asset library and revenue stream essential to Adobe's Creative Cloud ecosystem.cnet.com

Why it matters

For Adobe Stock, the threat is tied directly to the health and usage of the broader Creative Cloud ecosystem. While the reports suggest that businesses and professional creators will likely prefer the safety and privacy guarantees that Adobe offers, the appeal of free, customizable, open-source apps is tailor-made for individual users and tech enthusiasts who are subscription-weary.

This competition is part of a larger trend where AI-made apps are flooding app stores, challenging legacy tech pricing. This mirrors the growing frustration with legacy software companies, particularly as subscriptions become more expensive and their programs become bloated with AI features, as highlighted by Adobe's recent $150 million settlement with the US government.

What we don't know yet

How many professional creators will choose to stick with Adobe's paid ecosystem despite the free alternatives?
Will the free apps be able to scale to meet the complex needs of professional users?

Is this still moving?

Gone quiet Reached 2 outlets in its first 24 hours

Reports: 2
Developments: 2
Repetition: 0%

What would change this answer

The free apps gain significant traction among professional creators and businesses.The pressure on Adobe's core subscription revenue would increase, leading to a stronger negative effect on Adobe Stock demand.

Adobe releases a major, highly publicized update that significantly enhances the safety and privacy guarantees of its paid services.This could reinforce the preference of businesses and professional creators for Adobe, mitigating the negative effect on Adobe Stock.

— Other considerations

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Reporting

dominicanrepublicpost.comOct 14
cnet.comOct 13

Keep going

The full eventFree AI Apps Replicate Core Functions of Microsoft and Adobe Everything aboutAdobe Stock

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.