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From Brazil sets world's first global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels

How could Brazil's global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels affect the Paris Agreement?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Brazil's roadmap may help implement climate targets, but lacks key benchmarks Brazil's new global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels is intended to shift the focus of UN climate conferences from negotiating new agreements to implementing targets already agreed upon under the Paris Agreement. The roadmap suggests steps like reducing subsidies to fossil fuel use and cutting gas flaring. However, critics note that the documents are not binding and contain no timeline or key benchmarks, leaving much to be imagined about how the ultimate goal of limiting global warming to well below 2C can be achieved.

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How it reaches Paris Agreement

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The facts so far

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  • Brazil set out the world’s first global “roadmap” for phasing out fossil fuels.theguardian.com
  • The roadmaps are intended to help move the annual UN Cops away from their previous focus on negotiating global agreements to tackle the climate crisis, and on to implementing the targets that had already been agreed.theguardian.com
  • Joeri Rogelj said the roadmaps fall short of clearly indicating the pace of change needed by including no timeline or key benchmarks.theguardian.com

Why it matters

The Paris Agreement represents a global commitment to limit warming to well below 2C, preferably 1.5C. The success of this agreement hinges on concrete, measurable actions by nations to transition away from fossil fuels. Brazil's roadmap offers a framework for this transition, potentially accelerating implementation efforts globally, but its lack of specific deadlines means its impact remains theoretical for now.

Other nations, such as Germany, France, and the Netherlands, have produced national plans that are described as much more specific and prescriptive than Brazil’s. The roadmap also highlights the need for large sums of money—about $300bn a year by 2030—to help poor countries manage deforestation, underscoring the financial challenges inherent in meeting the Paris Agreement's goals.

What we don't know yet

  • Will other nations adopt Brazil's roadmap or create more prescriptive national plans?
  • What specific policy levers will ministries of finance, transportation, energy, and infrastructure use to implement the roadmap?

What would change this answer

The roadmap is adopted by major fossil fuel-producing nationsThe implementation focus of the Paris Agreement could become significantly more robust and widespread.
The roadmap is updated to include clear timelines and key benchmarksThe credibility of the roadmap as a tool for achieving the Paris Agreement's goals would increase substantially.

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The full eventBrazil sets world's first global roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels Everything aboutParis Agreement

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