Brind.
Part of Post-9/11 attacks sparked military involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan.

How could the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan affect the Islamic State?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Regional instability from the wars may enable Islamic State operations. The declaration of the War on Terror and the subsequent invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan created significant regional instability and power vacuums. The reports note that the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq left the region more perilous, and the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces in Afghanistan allowed the Taliban to return to power. This environment of conflict and instability provides conditions that militant groups, including the Islamic State, can exploit to expand their operational reach and influence.

Reported by 7 independent outlets Written Oct 19
Effect
Strong positive
How direct
Stated in the reporting
When
Over the long term
The story
Gone quiet

How it reaches Islamic State

Reported by news outlets

Tap any step to see the evidence behind it.

The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • The chaotic withdrawal of U.S. forces in 2021 let the Taliban return to power and revive its repressive Islamic regime in Afghanistan.chicagotribune.com
  • The recent U.S. withdrawal from Iraq left the region more perilous and empowered Iran to claim success there.chicagotribune.com
  • The Iraq war severely damaged America’s reputation and emboldened U.S. enemies in the region.chicagotribune.com
  • The Costs of War project at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University estimates the death toll in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and Pakistan between 2001 and 2023 was more than 940,000 people.lasvegassun.com

Why it matters

The Islamic State thrives in environments of state failure and geopolitical chaos. The reports indicate that the military interventions, while intended to combat terrorism, resulted in long-term instability across the Middle East and South Asia. This instability creates the operational space that militant groups require to recruit, plan, and expand their influence, making the consequences of the wars a critical factor in regional security.

Furthermore, the wars led to the expansion of government and security apparatuses in the wake of the crisis. Scholars have highlighted how an entire “terrorism industry” grew up around the U.S. government’s post-9/11 policies, demonstrating how the crisis environment itself fostered complex, long-lasting security dynamics that benefit non-state actors.

What we don't know yet

  • How will the current geopolitical shifts in the region affect the Islamic State's ability to maintain its operational capacity?
  • What specific counter-terrorism strategies are being implemented to mitigate the power vacuums created by the U.S. withdrawals?

Is this still moving?

Gone quiet Reached 4 outlets in its first 24 hours
Reports
8
Developments
5
Repetition
75%

What would change this answer

Major international powers increase military presence in Iraq or AfghanistanThis could reduce the operational space for militant groups, potentially limiting the Islamic State's ability to expand.
Regional governments successfully stabilize their borders and consolidate controlThis would reduce the power vacuums, making it harder for the Islamic State to operate and recruit.

Who else could feel it

Other possible ripples from the same event.

Reporting

All 7 outlets

Keep going

The full eventReview of War on Terror: U.S. Withdrawals Empower Iran, Heighten Regional Risk Everything aboutIslamic State

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.