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Part of El Nino impacts global weather patterns affecting production.

How will the development of El Nino conditions affect Forbes's climate outlook?

El Nino conditions influence Forbes's outlook despite current drought recovery While the Forbes district has seen significant rainfall improvements, pushing 98.2 per cent of the local area into drought recovery, the development of El Nino conditions introduces long-term risk. Forecasters note that the Bureau of Meteorology's longer-term outlook indicates rainfall is likely to be below average across much of southern and eastern Australia. This forecast is influenced by the El Nino development, even as unusually warm seas increase the potential for heavier rainfall during rain events.

Reported by 11 independent outlets Written Sep 27
Effect
Mild negative
How direct
3 steps, all reported
When
Within months
The story
Gone quiet

How it reaches Forbes

Reported by news outlets

Tap any step to see the evidence behind it.

The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • 98.2 per cent of the local area near Forbes is now classified as being in drought recovery.forbesadvocate.com.au
  • Forbes Airport recorded 327.4mm of rain year-to-date, following a wet May of 102mm.forbesadvocate.com.au
  • The Bureau of Meteorology's longer-term outlook indicates rainfall is likely to be below average across much of southern and eastern Australia.forbesadvocate.com.au
  • The Bureau notes that a strong oceanic El Nino signal does not automatically translate into strong impacts on Australia’s climate.forbesadvocate.com.au

Why it matters

The climate outlook is critical for agricultural regions like Forbes, as rainfall dictates crop yields and water availability. While the region has recently achieved drought recovery, the long-term forecast of below-average rainfall due to El Nino introduces significant uncertainty and potential future stress on local resources and farming operations.

El Nino is a major climate phenomenon that alters global weather patterns. Although the Bureau of Meteorology notes that the signal does not automatically translate into strong impacts, the combination of El Nino and unusually warm seas increases the potential for heavier rainfall during rain events, complicating the overall climate picture for the region.

What we don't know yet

  • How will the increased potential for heavier rainfall during rain events offset the forecast for below-average overall rainfall?
  • What specific measures is the Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development taking to manage the long-term risk of below-average rainfall?

Is this still moving?

Gone quiet
Reports
29
Developments
5
Repetition
83%

What would change this answer

The Bureau of Meteorology updates its outlook to show a higher probability of above-average rainfall.The long-term negative risk associated with El Nino would diminish, strengthening the drought recovery status of the region.
The El Nino conditions weaken or dissipate quickly.The influence of the El Nino development on the climate outlook would lessen, potentially stabilizing the region's rainfall patterns.

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The full eventStrong El Niño Conditions Raise Global Extreme Weather and Growth Risks Everything aboutForbes

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