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Part of The UK food system is struggling with food security due to its reliance on imports from Europe, amidst the fallout from the Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

How could the drop in malt demand affect Scotland's agricultural sector?

Already happening What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Low malt demand and production cuts are putting financial pressure on Scottish farmers. The substantial drop in demand for malt, driven by distillers cutting production, is placing significant financial strain on the Scottish agricultural supply chain. Colin Johnston, Sales and Marketing Director of Crisp Malt, reported a drop of about 300,000 tons in demand for malt, leading to distillers needing to drain surplus stock from warehouses. This downturn is forcing Scottish farmers to face low returns, leading to reduced plantings, as they struggle to maintain viability given the stringent quality specifications required for malting barley.

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How it reaches Scotland

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The facts so far

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  • There is a drop of about 300,000 tons in demand for malt.cityam.com
  • In Scotland, the area under barley fell by 13 per cent to 258,000 ha, the lowest since 1960.cityam.com
  • The historic price gap between malting and feed barley has shrunk to just £5 -15 per tonne.cityam.com
  • The industry is sitting on a lot of stock and it’s going to take quite some time to work through that.cityam.com

Why it matters

The Scottish agricultural sector relies heavily on high-value crops like malting barley to feed the global Scotch whisky industry. This industry is a major economic pillar, and the current downturn threatens the financial viability of farmers who must meet stringent quality specifications demanded by distillers.

This situation reflects broader pressures across the agricultural supply chain, where farmers are already dealing with high input costs and the loss of EU subsidies. The industry is currently trying to manage a surplus of stock while waiting for global demand for Scotch whisky to pick up again.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the UK-India trade pact be sufficient to reverse the equation and push up barley prices?
  • Will Scottish growers be willing to absorb the costs of changing growing patterns to meet new demands?

What would change this answer

Global demand for Scotch whisky improves rapidlyThis could reverse the equation, pushing up barley prices and potentially encouraging farmers to continue planting the crop.
Distillers fail to drain surplus stock from warehousesThe market will remain suppressed for a longer period, prolonging the financial pressure on Scottish farmers and maltsters.

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Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.