How could the Missouri River Basin drought affect NorthWestern Energy's operations?
Drought conditions may reduce power generation capacity for NorthWestern Energy The persistent drought and low runoff in the Missouri River Basin are linked to reduced energy generation from mainstem power plants. In July 2026, the six mainstem power plants generated 747 million kWh, which was 199 million kWh lower than the typical July generation of 946 million kWh. This reduction is attributed to factors like lack of precipitation, dry soils, and below-average mountain snowpack. As a utility company, NorthWestern Energy is exposed to these changes in regional power output and reservoir levels.
- Effect
- Mild negative
- How direct
- Stated in the reporting
- When
- Within weeks
- The story
- Gone quiet
How it reaches NorthWestern Energy
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Runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, was 61% of average in July 2026, and the 2026 forecast for the upper basin is 60% of average, which the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers states could be the 11th lowest runoff in the period of record. The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated that 80% of the basin was still considered abnormally dry or in drought conditions.
The full event2independent outlets -
Low runoff and lack of precipitation led to reduced energy generation from the six mainstem power plants. For example, these plants generated 747 million kWh in July 2026, significantly below the typical July generation of 946 million kWh.
1 report connects these two. Brind only summarizes; follow a link to read the reporting itself.
- drgnews.com Aug 11
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American utility company
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The facts so far
As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.
- Runoff above Sioux City, Iowa, in July 2026 was 61% of average, or 2 million acre-feet.drgnews.com
- The 2026 calendar year runoff forecast for the upper Missouri River Basin is 60% of average, or 15.4 MAF.drgnews.com
- The six mainstem power plants generated 747 million kWh of electricity in July, 199 million kWh lower than the typical energy generation for July which is 946 million kWh.drgnews.com
- The U.S. Drought Monitor indicated 80% of the basin is still considered abnormally dry or in drought conditions.drgnews.com
Why it matters
For NorthWestern Energy, which operates within the regional power grid, reduced output from major hydropower sources translates directly into operational challenges and potentially higher costs or supply constraints. The reduced generation is part of a broader trend, as the power plants are expected to generate 7.1 billion kWh this year compared to the long-term average of 9.3 billion kWh.
This situation is part of a multi-state environmental challenge across the Great Plains region. The drought is expected to persist or expand in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, while improving in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Furthermore, the controversy over water use is heightened by the push to end out-of-basin water transfers from water-stressed North Dakota.
What we don't know yet
- Will the expected reservoir levels at Oahe Dam and Big Bend Dam be sufficient to maintain minimum operational capacity?
- How will the utility sector adjust its energy sourcing strategy given the lower long-term average generation forecast?
Is this still moving?
- Reports
- 2
- Developments
- 7
- Repetition
- 0%
What would change this answer
— Other considerations
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Questions worth asking
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About Coal fired
Since hydropower output is declining, what is the capacity of coal-fired plants in the region to compensate for the lost generation?
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Who else could feel it
Other possible ripples from the same event.
- OmahaLikelyLow Missouri River runoff may force changes in dam operations near Omaha.
- Colorado Water Conservation BoardLikelyThe Colorado Water Conservation Board may need to adjust resource allocation due to persistent drought.
- Mississippi RiverLikelyMississippi River flow may decrease due to low runoff in Missouri Basin
- National Park ServicePossibleDrought conditions may strain operational capacity of National Park Service sites
- Belt CreekPossibleBelt Creek may experience reduced water flow due to regional drought conditions
- Nebraska National Forests and GrasslandsPossibleDrought conditions could force Nebraska National Forests to adapt resource management
- American RiversPossibleAmerican Rivers' focus on river health may shift due to Missouri River drought
Reporting
- drgnews.comAug 11
- waterwaysjournal.netAug 28
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Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.