How could the El Niño-driven extreme rainfall affect the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?
NOAA must intensify monitoring of extreme weather and long-term climate risks The widespread heavy rain and soggy conditions across the United States, driven by a record-strong El Niño, require the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to intensify its monitoring and reporting efforts. The event is a manifestation of the climate pattern that NOAA tracks, and the extreme rainfall events, such as the 2 feet recorded in Florida or the 7 inches in Arizona, provide concrete data points that must be incorporated into ongoing forecasts.
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How it reaches National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Deluging rain battered Florida for three straight days, with totals reaching 2 feet in some areas, leading to catastrophic flash flooding and two deaths in Palm Bay. Meanwhile, Arizona received up to 7 inches of rain between Saturday and Monday, causing flash flooding and one death in Flagstaff. The storm system subsequently moved into the Central U.S., bringing soggy conditions to the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and the western Gulf Coast.
The full event1independent outlet -
The extreme rainfall events across the U.S., such as the deluging rain in Florida and the flash flooding in Arizona, are fueled by a record-strong El Niño. This pattern alters global weather, causing the jet stream to shift southward and eastward, which NOAA is tasked with tracking and forecasting. The severity of these events requires NOAA to continuously update its outlooks and monitor the associated long-term risks.
1 report connects these two. Brind only summarizes; follow a link to read the reporting itself.
- gizmodo.com Tuesday
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The facts so far
As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.
- Deluging rain in Florida reached totals as high as 2 feet (0.6 meters) along the Space Coast.gizmodo.com
- Up to 7 inches (18 centimeters) of rain fell in Arizona between Saturday and Monday.gizmodo.com
- NOAA released its winter outlook in October, forecasting temperature and precipitation trends across the United States from December through February.gizmodo.com
- The jet stream shifts southward and eastward over the contiguous United States due to the warming in the equatorial Pacific.gizmodo.com
Why it matters
NOAA plays a critical role in public safety and resource management by providing timely and accurate weather and climate forecasts. The severity of this El Niño event, which is shaping up to be the strongest on record, means that the agency must manage increased demand for data and warnings related to flooding, extreme heat, and precipitation across the southern tier of the United States.
This situation highlights the compounding effect of climate change and natural cycles. The reports note that El Niño compounds human-driven warming, increasing the atmosphere's ability to soak up moisture and thus increasing the risk of extreme rainfall. This places a heightened focus on the long-term risks associated with infrastructure and lives, which is a core function of NOAA's climate science division.
What we don't know yet
- How will the intensity of the El Niño pattern evolve over the coming months?
- What specific adjustments will NOAA make to its monitoring protocols given the record-strong nature of this El Niño?
What would change this answer
Who else could feel it
Other possible ripples from the same event.
Reporting
- gizmodo.comTuesday
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