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Part of El Niño is causing ocean warming and dwindling fish stocks along the Pacific coast, wreaking havoc across Central America and Peru.

How could the decline of marine iguanas affect CITES's regulatory effectiveness?

Already happening What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Traffickers exploit CITES loopholes as El Niño decimates marine iguana food sources. The Super El Niño event is wiping out the primary food source—intertidal macroalgae—for the Galapagos marine iguana, causing populations to shrink and face mass mortality from starvation. This ecological crisis drives an uptick in black-market trafficking for the exotic pet trade. Traffickers are exploiting CITES permitting loopholes by falsely declaring wild-caught iguanas as captive-bred in countries like Uganda, Switzerland, Mali, and Japan, despite those nations having no authorized breeding facilities.

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How it reaches CITES

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The facts so far

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  • The 2026/27 El Niño began warming equatorial waters in May, coinciding with Ecuadorian seizures of at least 48 iguanas.eurasiareview.com
  • Traffickers exploit CITES permitting loopholes by falsely declaring wild-caught animals as captive-bred in countries without authorized facilities.eurasiareview.com
  • The Galapagos marine iguana is the world’s only sea-foraging lizard and is classified as Vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.eurasiareview.com
  • Out of 11 known subspecies, 10 are locally categorized as Endangered or Critically Endangered.eurasiareview.com

Why it matters

The Galapagos marine iguana is a highly specialized species, and its survival is critical for understanding the impact of climate change on unique ecosystems. The dual threat of climate-driven starvation and organized crime-fueled trafficking puts the species at extreme risk, threatening the integrity of global conservation efforts.

This situation highlights how climate events can exacerbate existing criminal networks. Trafficking networks leverage local economic hardship and organized crime to pull iguanas from shorelines, using international loopholes to move them to overseas markets in Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and the Pacific.

What we don't know yet

  • Will CITES successfully close the permitting loopholes being exploited by international traffickers?
  • What level of financial support and sustainable alternative livelihoods is needed for coastal communities in Ecuador to reduce participation in the black market?

What would change this answer

The El Niño event hits 'super' status againThe decline in macroalgae and subsequent iguana mortality will accelerate, increasing the pressure and volume of illegal trafficking.
Ecuador aggressively combats and litigates organized crimeThe local supply of iguanas for the black market will decrease, reducing the incentive for traffickers to exploit CITES loopholes.

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The full eventEl Niño Threatens Marine Iguanas, Driving Illegal Trafficking in Ecuador Everything aboutCITES

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.