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Part of El Nino phenomenon is impacting India's weather, prompting the IMD to issue long-range forecasts.

How does the El Nino influence on monsoon timing affect Kerala?

Monsoon progress from Kerala stalled due to El Nino conditions The El Nino conditions are influencing regional weather patterns, causing the southwest monsoon flow to stall after reaching south Konkan. This stalling is part of a broader pattern where the monsoon's progress has been delayed in Maharashtra, leading to concerns over water reserves and agricultural planning. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is monitoring the situation, with forecasts indicating light to moderate rainfall is likely in the region.

Reported by 7 independent outlets Written Sep 27
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How it reaches Kerala

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • The progress of the southwest monsoon from Kerala stalled after reaching south Konkan earlier this month, under the effect of El Nino.indiatimes.com
  • The collective water stock across the four dams in Maharashtra stands at 3.90 TMC currently, translating to just 13.39% of the total storage capacity.indiatimes.com
  • Normally, monsoon arrives in Pune on June 10, but people have been waiting for rains due to the stalled progress.indiatimes.com
  • The IMD has also said conditions are favourable for a further advance of the southwest monsoon into some more parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and some parts of Chhattisgarh around June 23.indiatimes.com

Why it matters

The monsoon is the primary source of water for agriculture and urban supply across India, and a stalled monsoon flow directly impacts farming communities. Farmers in Maharashtra, for example, are waiting for the next spell to decide on sowing and irrigation schedules, while residents face severe hardship due to water supply restrictions.

This situation is part of a larger climatic trend where El Niño conditions are documented as the climatic driver causing drought and monsoon disruptions across Maharashtra. The uneven pattern of rainfall distribution has resulted in moisture stress in some areas, even as other regions received excess water.

What we don't know yet

  • How long is the monsoon expected to remain stalled in the region?
  • Will the formation of low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal be sufficient to revive the monsoon flow?

Is this still moving?

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What would change this answer

A low-pressure area forms in the Bay of BengalThis could bring rainfall in the subsequent weeks, potentially reviving the monsoon flow and easing water stress.
El Nino conditions weaken or dissipateThe influence on regional weather patterns could lessen, allowing the monsoon to resume its normal progress.

— Other considerations

Beyond this explainer

Questions worth asking

Ideas the web ties closely to this story that the explainer doesn't mention. These are prompts for your own research: Brind hasn't answered them.

  • About Heatwave Conditions

    Since the monsoon progress has stalled, are heatwave conditions expected to worsen the moisture stress in Maharashtra?

  • About Cyclonic Storm

    Given the stalled monsoon flow, could a cyclonic storm forming in the Bay of Bengal alter the regional weather patterns in Maharashtra?

Explore connected ideas

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Reporting

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Keep going

The full eventEl Niño Causes Late Monsoon Arrival and Rainfall Deficits in Maharashtra Everything aboutKerala

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. It is not investment advice; do your own research.