How could the exclusion from the Franco-German automotive proposal affect Turkey?
Turkey may face disrupted supply chains and reduced investment due to EU automotive rules. The Franco-German automotive proposal, which aims to govern which vehicles qualify for EU public procurement and financial support, excludes Türkiye because the country was not part of the single market on January 1, 2020. This exclusion could disrupt the production and supply relationships established through Türkiye's three-decade customs union with the EU. For Türkiye, whose automotive sector exported $30.1 billion to EU countries in 2025 (72.5% of its total exports), this disruption could harm investment, employment, and exports.
- Effect
- Strong negative
- How direct
- 2 steps, 1 inferred by Brind
- When
- Within months
- The story
- Gone quiet
How it reaches Turkey
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A Franco-German automotive proposal, announced on October 16, establishes rules for which vehicles qualify for public procurement and financial support within the EU. This agreement grants Britain conditional access to the EU’s planned “Made in EU” support scheme. Despite being a major production base for European markets, Turkey was left outside this proposal. Antonio Filosa advocated for aligning automotive rules during the Paris Motor Show.
The full event1independent outlet -
The Franco-German proposal, negotiated under the Industrial Accelerator Act, introduces European-content requirements for vehicles benefiting from public purchasing and support schemes across the EU's 27 members.
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- hurriyetdailynews.com Oct 17
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terrestrial continent located in north-western Eurasia
Everything about Europe -
The agreement defines eligible partners as those part of the single market on January 1, 2020, a definition that does not include Türkiye, leaving the country outside the proposal. Excluding Türkiye, a major production base supplying European markets, could disrupt production and supply relationships established through its three-decade customs union with the EU, potentially harming investment, employment, and exports.
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country in West Asia and Southeast Europe
Everything about Turkey
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The facts so far
As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.
- Türkiye's automotive sector exported $41.5 billion in 2025, with EU countries accounting for $30.1 billion, or 72.5 percent.hurriyetdailynews.com
- The Franco-German proposal would cover the EU’s 27 members and allow European partners that were part of the single market on Jan. 1, 2020, to opt in.hurriyetdailynews.com
- Bolat warned that excluding the country could disrupt the production and supply relationships established through its three-decade customs union with the EU.hurriyetdailynews.com
Why it matters
For Türkiye, the automotive sector is critically dependent on the EU, which accounts for 72.5 percent of its total exports. The exclusion from this major EU-led industrial framework threatens the stability of the production and supply relationships that have been maintained through a three-decade customs union.
This debate is part of a wider push by the EU to strengthen its capacity to develop and manufacture next-generation electric vehicles, linking this transition to investment and production within Europe. Other major players, such as Toyota, have also called for broader inclusion of trusted partners, including Türkiye and Japan, in such agreements.
What we don't know yet
- Will Türkiye successfully negotiate changes to the restrictive automotive provisions with EU institutions?
- How will the EU respond to calls from companies like Toyota for wider inclusion of partners?
What would change this answer
— Other considerations
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Who else could feel it
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Reporting
- hurriyetdailynews.comOct 17
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Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.