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Part of Idaho is proposing a major overhaul of its tax structure, including eliminating property taxes and increasing sales taxes.

How will Herndon's tax plan affect the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare?

Herndon's tax plan could reduce per-patient spending by 21% for Idaho health services Herndon's proposed tax plan projects state revenue growth, but critics warn that its expense model leads to significant service cuts. By applying current operating costs to a larger population, the plan suggests a reduction in state spending per patient in year ten. This reduction specifically impacts state services like Medicaid, which are managed by the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Wednesday
Effect
Strong negative
How direct
2 steps, all reported
When
Over the long term
The story
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How it reaches Idaho Department of Health and Welfare

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • Herndon's plan projects state revenue growth of about 5.5% a year, increasing from $5.5M to $9.4M over 10 years.bonnercountydailybee.com
  • The plan projects an increase in Idaho's population from 2 million to about 2.6 million, driven by roughly 550,000 new residents.bonnercountydailybee.com
  • Applying today’s operating spend across 27% more people results in unnamed service cuts.bonnercountydailybee.com
  • Herndon's own numbers say state spending per patient could be about 21% less in year ten.bonnercountydailybee.com

Why it matters

The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare manages critical state services, including Medicaid. Any reduction in per-patient spending or service cuts directly impacts the quality and availability of healthcare for Idaho residents. If the plan's assumptions hold, the department would face a significant operational challenge in maintaining current service levels with reduced funding.

This critique highlights a common challenge in municipal budgeting: separating fixed costs from variable costs. Critics argue that Herndon's plan fails to account for the full scope of state costs, such as schools, Medicaid, and roads, when projecting the impact of population growth.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare be able to absorb a 21% reduction in per-patient spending without compromising essential services?
  • What specific state costs, such as schools or roads, are included in the calculation of the 21% spending reduction?

What would change this answer

The state legislature modifies the plan to account for fixed costs and variable spending accuratelyThe projected service cuts and the 21% reduction in per-patient spending for the department would likely be mitigated or eliminated.
The Idaho Department of Health and Welfare publicly releases its own independent cost-of-service analysisThis analysis could confirm or refute the severity of the projected service cuts and the 21% spending reduction.

— Other considerations

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Idaho Department of Health and WelfareState LegislatureProperty TaxHealth ServicesPopulation GrowthIdahoOperating CostsRevenue Growth

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Reporting

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The full eventCritique of Herndon's Tax Plan Questions Idaho State Budget Stability Everything aboutIdaho Department of Health and Welfare

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. It is not investment advice; do your own research.