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Part of Ali Al Zaidi is finalizing his government in Iraq, amid Washington pressuring Baghdad regarding militia leaders.

How could Iraq's direct contracting policy affect the Popular Mobilization Forces?

Likely What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

The Popular Mobilization Forces may face restrictions on funding from government procurement. Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi ordered the Defense Industries Commission to contract directly with manufacturing companies, bypassing intermediary firms. This policy is designed to eliminate the middlemen networks that sources report serve as vital economic pipelines for armed groups. Since certain intermediary companies are linked to the economic interests of factions, including those connected to Al-Muhandis Company—a formation of the Popular Mobilization Forces—the directive aims to restrict the revenue and financial resources these groups derive from state contracts.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written 5 hours ago
Effect
Strong negative
How direct
Stated in the reporting
When
Within weeks
The story
Still developing

How it reaches Popular Mobilization Forces

Reported by news outlets

Tap any step to see the evidence behind it.

The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • PM Zaidi ordered the Defense Industries Commission to bypass intermediary firms and contract directly with manufacturing companies.aawsat.com
  • The directive seeks to tighten oversight on government procurement by eliminating middlemen networks.aawsat.com
  • Some intermediary companies operate within a network linked to Al-Muhandis Company - one of the formations of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF).aawsat.com
  • These firms are used to secure government contracts and provide financial resources to armed groups.aawsat.com

Why it matters

The financial viability of armed factions like the Popular Mobilization Forces is increasingly tied to their commercial activities. These groups have been reported to monopolize massive state contracts, using them not only to generate revenue but also to launder funds derived from illicit activities, such as oil and drug smuggling.

This policy shift occurs amid escalating tensions between the Iraqi government and certain armed factions. The move is part of a broader push by Prime Minister Al-Zaidi to restructure the relationship between state institutions and armed formations, signaling a major attempt to reduce the economic and security influence of these groups.

What we don't know yet

  • How quickly will the government enforce the direct contracting policy across all state institutions?
  • What adaptive strategies might the Popular Mobilization Forces use to circumvent the new procurement restrictions?

What would change this answer

The government successfully implements the direct contracting policy across major ministries.The financial pipelines used by PMF-linked companies will be significantly curtailed, making the negative effect more certain and stronger.
The Popular Mobilization Forces successfully shift their commercial operations to non-state sectors.The impact of the policy will fade, as the groups can continue generating revenue outside of government procurement.

Who else could feel it

Other possible ripples from the same event.

Reporting

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The full eventIraq mandates direct contracting to restrict funding for armed factions Everything aboutPopular Mobilization Forces

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.