Brind.
Part of A general issue regarding data center development is facing Congressional scrutiny, involving the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

How could local opposition and water usage estimates affect Wood Mackenzie's market projections?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Resource constraints and local opposition may modify Wood Mackenzie's data center market projections Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates that US data centers used about 17 billion gallons of water for cooling in 2023, a figure that could double or quadruple by 2028.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Oct 20
Effect
Mild negative
How direct
Brind's reasoning
When
Within months
The story
Gone quiet

How it reaches Wood Mackenzie

Reported by news outletsBrind's reasoning

Tap any step to see the evidence behind it.

The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • Supervisors in Pinal County, Arizona, voted down a large data center campus after residents objected.fortune.com
  • Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory estimates US data centers used about 17 billion gallons of water for cooling in 2023.fortune.com
  • LBNL estimates that US data center water usage could double or even quadruple by 2028.fortune.com
  • LBNL's research on grid bottlenecks informs market projections used by Wood Mackenzie.fortune.com

Why it matters

For Wood Mackenzie, which provides market projections for the data center industry, the increasing visibility of resource constraints and local resistance is critical. The firm relies on technical data, such as LBNL's findings on grid bottlenecks, to model future growth and risk. If real-world factors like water scarcity and community opposition become more prevalent, they introduce significant non-technical risks that must be factored into market forecasts, potentially tempering growth expectations.

This issue is part of a broader trend where the benefits of cloud services and AI are spread widely, but the costs—such as land use, water consumption, and power demands—land on specific towns. The reports indicate that national figures on water use are insufficient, and site-specific factors, like location in a dry county, are what matter most to residents and planners.

What we don't know yet

  • How will the industry respond to increased site-by-site public reporting requirements?
  • Will the increased scrutiny lead to changes in the technology used for data center cooling?

What would change this answer

More local votes are lost by developers in other dry countiesThis would increase the certainty that local opposition is a major factor, making the negative effect on market projections more likely and stronger.
Newer sites increasingly use air cooling or sealed liquid loopsThis technological shift could mitigate the water concerns, reducing the risk factor and lessening the negative impact on market projections.

Who else could feel it

Other possible ripples from the same event.

Reporting

Keep going

The full eventArizona County Rejects Data Center Campus Amid Water Use Concerns Everything aboutWood Mackenzie

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.