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Part of US administrations, including Biden's and Trump's, engage in diplomatic outreach, sanctions, and talks regarding Myanmar.

How could the military takeover in Myanmar affect Malaysia's diplomatic stance?

Likely What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Malaysia may consider welcoming Myanmar back into ASEAN The military takeover in Myanmar and the junta's subsequent diplomatic outreach have led Min Aung Hlaing to visit Malaysia. During this visit, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim floated the idea of Myanmar being welcomed back into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). This move comes as the junta continues to achieve growing military success, allowing it to pursue diplomatic victories despite international condemnation.

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How it reaches Malaysia

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The facts so far

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  • Min Aung Hlaing flew to Malaysia to discuss bilateral ties and legitimacy.theguardian.com
  • Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim floated the idea of Myanmar being welcomed back into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).theguardian.com
  • The junta has regained control over several towns and pushed the resistance back into the countryside with the help of drones supplied by Russia and China.theguardian.com

Why it matters

For Malaysia, this diplomatic consideration represents a potential shift in regional policy, balancing the need for stability against international human rights concerns. The junta's diplomatic victories, coupled with its growing military success, put pressure on regional players to normalize relations, even if it means engaging with an authoritarian regime.

This move is part of a broader trend where other nations, such as Indonesia and Brunei, are also being approached by the junta. The decision by Malaysia to consider welcoming Myanmar back into ASEAN would signal a significant regional acceptance of the military regime, potentially undermining the unified stance of Western nations and other regional bodies.

What we don't know yet

  • Will Malaysia proceed with the idea of welcoming Myanmar back into ASEAN?
  • How will the junta's growing military success affect its ability to maintain stability in Myanmar?

What would change this answer

The junta continues to achieve significant military victories and control over more territory.This would increase the pressure on Malaysia and other regional nations to normalize relations, making the re-entry into ASEAN more likely.
Western nations, such as the UK, Canada, or the EU, increase their diplomatic pressure or aid to Myanmar's pro-democracy camp.This could make Malaysia more cautious about normalizing ties, potentially stalling the discussion about ASEAN re-entry.

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  • About President Donald Trump

    Given that Malaysia's move could undermine the unified stance of Western nations, how does the current US foreign policy toward Myanmar compare to Malaysia's potential diplomatic shift?

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Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.