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From China's NDRC Threatens Rare Earth Controls Against US Defense Contractors

How could the NDRC's rare earth controls affect HiSilicon's production capacity?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

HiSilicon may face increased costs and supply risks from rare earth controls The National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC) use of rare earth controls in 2019 targeted contractors that refuse to do business with Huawei. Since HiSilicon is a fully owned semiconductor division of Huawei, it is exposed to these supply chain restrictions. The reports indicate that even a modest decrease in rare earth availability increases element prices, while severe shortages could threaten the production of vital systems. This means HiSilicon could face higher input costs or operational constraints due to the targeted controls.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written 10 hours ago
Effect
Mild negative
How direct
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When
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How it reaches HiSilicon

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The facts so far

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  • The NDRC used rare earth controls in 2019 to leverage against Huawei and US contractors.defensenews.com
  • The controls were designed to single out U.S. defense manufacturers, along with contractors that refuse to do business with Huawei.defensenews.com
  • Even a modest decrease in the availability of rare earth materials results in increasing prices for the elements.defensenews.com
  • Severe and sustained shortages could threaten the ability of American defense contractors to produce systems vital to our national security.defensenews.com

Why it matters

For HiSilicon, a critical component of Huawei's technology ecosystem, exposure to rare earth controls means potential instability in its input supply and rising operational costs. As a semiconductor manufacturer, HiSilicon relies on complex supply chains that utilize rare earth materials, making it vulnerable to the strategic leverage employed by the NDRC.

This move by the NDRC demonstrated China's sophistication in targeting critical sectors and supply chains to gain leverage in trade negotiations. It highlights the geopolitical risk associated with critical mineral dependencies, a vulnerability the U.S. government has been actively trying to mitigate through initiatives like the June 4 Federal Strategy to Ensure Secure and Reliable Supplies of Critical Minerals.

What we don't know yet

  • Will the NDRC continue to use rare earth controls as a strategic tool against foreign entities?
  • What specific rare earth materials are most critical to HiSilicon's semiconductor production?

What would change this answer

The U.S. government successfully diversifies its rare earth supply chains.The leverage point used by the NDRC would weaken, reducing the risk of supply disruption for HiSilicon.
The NDRC expands its controls to include other critical materials beyond rare earths.The potential negative impact on HiSilicon's production costs and operations would increase significantly.

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Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.