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Part of Pritzker's commission investigates economic loss in Cook County, utilizing an analysis conducted by the University of Illinois.

What could the proposed millionaires tax amendment mean for Illinois's fiscal structure?

Possible What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Illinois's fiscal structure could shift significantly if the millionaires tax passes. The proposed Millionaire Amendment would impose a 3% income tax surcharge on individuals earning over $1 million. If adopted, this tax would generate $3.8 billion in its first full year, rising to $4.2 billion by 2030. The revenue would be split equally: 50% dedicated to property tax relief, which could deliver $1,500 rebates to 3 million homeowners and cut property tax bills by 20 percent; and the other 50% dedicated to improving state funding for public education. However, critics warn that such tax increases could lead to higher consumer prices, fewer job opportunities, and lower returns on investment.

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How it reaches Illinois

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The facts so far

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  • The tax would be a 3% income tax surcharge only on millionaires.nbcchicago.com
  • The surcharge would generate $3.8 billion in its first full year and $4.2 billion a year by 2030.nbcchicago.com
  • The state could deliver $1,500 rebates to 3 million homeowners and cut property tax bills by 20 percent.nbcchicago.com
  • The tax would affect about 41,000 people statewide.nbcchicago.com

Why it matters

The potential adoption of this tax represents a fundamental shift in Illinois's fiscal priorities, balancing the need for property tax relief and improved public education funding against potential economic risks. If passed, the state's revenue structure would be permanently altered by a multi-billion dollar surcharge, requiring the state to amend its constitution and secure statewide voter approval.

Economists and policy experts are divided on the outcome. While proponents argue that the tax would provide disposable income for millions of residents, critics warn that the tax increases could ultimately be passed along to consumers through higher prices, potentially leading to fewer job opportunities and lower wages across the state.

What we don't know yet

  • What is the actual impact of the tax on non-millionaire taxpayers?
  • How would the state's economy adjust to the potential outmigration of businesses and high earners?

What would change this answer

State lawmakers successfully pass the necessary joint resolution to amend the constitutionThe timeline for the tax implementation would accelerate, making the effect on Illinois's finances more immediate.
The state successfully attracts new high-earning residents to offset any business outmigrationThe net negative economic impact on Illinois could be mitigated, supporting the argument that in-migration balances out out-migration.

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The full eventReport Details Proposed Millionaire Tax in Illinois Ahead of Cook County Vote Everything aboutIllinois

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.