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From Reserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates to 15-year high

How could the RBA raising interest rates affect Pauline Hanson's political standing?

Likely What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Rate hikes may boost Pauline Hanson's support among mortgage holders The Reserve Bank of Australia's decision to lift interest rates to a 15-year high has created immediate economic strain for mortgage holders. This strain is reported to be driving a sizable proportion of these households toward Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party, positioning the party as the natural home for 'battlers.' Polls conducted after the rate hike showed One Nation's support rising one percentage point to 29%, while Labor's support fell back a point to 28%.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Oct 14
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How it reaches Pauline Hanson

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia lifted interest rates by 0.25 percentage points to a 15-year high of 4.6% on September 29.nzherald.co.nz
  • The consequences of the rate hikes will be real and immediate for the 3.3 million households that have mortgages.nzherald.co.nz
  • Polls showed One Nation’s support up one percentage point to 29% following the latest rate hike.nzherald.co.nz
  • Labor’s support fell back a point to 28% in the latest Australian Financial Review/Redbridge survey.nzherald.co.nz

Why it matters

The shift in support is significant because it represents a political challenge to the Labor government, which is attempting to spend its way out of political trouble. The central bank, however, believes this government largesse is fuelling inflation, and Governor Michele Bullock warned that unemployment would probably need to rise to as high as 5% to rein in inflation.

This trend reflects a broader economic vulnerability, as the economy has expanded at a slower rate than the population in eight of the past 20 quarters, meaning net immigration is currently propping up the economy that would otherwise be flat.

What we don't know yet

  • How will the government respond to the political shift toward One Nation?
  • Will the RBA continue to raise rates, and what impact will that have on the economy?

What would change this answer

The economy continues to expand at a slower rate than the populationThe strain on mortgage holders will persist, likely increasing the political momentum for One Nation.
The government successfully spends its way out of political troubleThe political pressure on One Nation may lessen, mitigating the electoral gains seen following the rate hike.

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The full eventReserve Bank of Australia raises interest rates to 15-year high Everything aboutPauline Hanson

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.