How could the shift from traditional food crops to high-density apple cultivation affect Srinagar?
The shift to high-density apples may alter Srinagar's regional market and food supply dynamics The increasing conversion of paddy fields to high-density apple orchards across the Kashmir Valley changes the region's agricultural output, leading to a decline in locally produced staple foods like rice. This structural shift increases the Valley's reliance on external supply chains, particularly from Punjab and Haryana, for rice. As Srinagar functions as the major commercial and consumption center for the region, this change in supply mix and increased dependence on external markets could alter local trade patterns and the economic stability of the food system.
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How it reaches Srinagar
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Farmers in Kashmir are increasingly replacing food crops, such as paddy, with horticulture, specifically high-density apple orchards, to achieve higher earnings amid rising cultivation costs. This shift is leading to the Kashmir Valley becoming more reliant on external states for staple food like rice.
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As the Valley's capacity to produce rice locally declines, the region relies heavily on government food supplies from outside states, such as Punjab and Haryana. Srinagar, as the primary market and consumption center, is therefore subject to these changes in supply chains and increased dependence on external food sources.
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city in Jammu and Kashmir, India
Everything about Srinagar
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The facts so far
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- Jammu and Kashmir’s paddy acreage fell to 258,840 hectares in 2024-2025 from 304,500 hectares in 2015-2016, a drop of around 15%.scroll.in
- The area under apple increased to 173,073 hectares in 2024-2025 from 107,930 hectares in 2004-2005, an increase of around 60%.scroll.in
- During 2024-2025, 4.86 lakh tonnes of rice were largely brought in from surplus states, particularly Punjab and Haryana.scroll.in
- The region estimates it produces roughly 50%-55% of its own rice requirement, with 45%-50% coming from other states.scroll.in
Why it matters
The shift represents a structural vulnerability for the region. While individual farmers gain higher incomes from high-density apples, the aggregate effect reduces the Valley’s capacity to produce its culturally entrenched staple food, rice. This ties the Valley’s food security to external transport networks and market conditions, creating a 'negative covariance' risk where poor apple harvests could reduce the purchasing power available to buy necessary food from outside.
This trend is driven by rational economic choices, where farmers move towards higher-value crops to offset rising cultivation costs and land fragmentation. However, experts warn that while the shift is easy to initiate, reversing the conversion from perennial orchards back to paddy fields is increasingly difficult, making the change a long-term structural hazard.
What we don't know yet
- What specific policies could protect strategic paddy regions from conversion?
- How will the increased reliance on external food supplies affect local inflation in Srinagar?
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