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Part of El Niño is developing in the tropical Pacific, causing shifts in jet streams that are impacting weather patterns across South America, the West Coast, Ohio, and Tennessee.

How could the strong El Niño be affecting the National Hurricane Center's forecasts?

Likely What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Strong El Niño may reduce Atlantic hurricane frequency and intensity The development of a strong El Niño is increasing vertical wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean. This change in wind speed with height makes it less likely for tropical storms to evolve into hurricanes, as these storms require relatively stable air to form over a wide area. Consequently, the National Hurricane Center is forecasting a quieter Atlantic season, anticipating between two and six hurricanes, which is below the historical average of seven.

Reported by 15 independent outlets Written Oct 13
Effect
Mild negative
How direct
Stated in the reporting
When
Within weeks
The story
Mostly repetition

How it reaches National Hurricane Center

Reported by news outlets

Tap any step to see the evidence behind it.

The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • Strong El Niño is increasing wind shear and reducing Atlantic hurricane frequency across the Americas.aol.co.uk
  • El Niño tends to increase vertical wind shear across the Atlantic, helping to break up storms and prevent hurricane formation and intensification.nola.com
  • NOAA predicted a quiet year, anticipating between three and six hurricanes, well below the average of seven.aol.co.uk

Why it matters

The National Hurricane Center relies on accurate climate modeling to issue operational forecasts regarding tropical cyclone risk. A shift in the fundamental atmospheric conditions, such as increased wind shear, requires the NHC to adjust its predictions regarding storm frequency and intensity.

This change in forecasting scope is critical for preparedness efforts across the Americas. While a reduced number of hurricanes might seem less concerning, the reports also note that the energy added by a strong El Niño may produce more powerful tropical storms later on, meaning the NHC must manage a complex, mixed risk profile.

What we don't know yet

  • How will the NHC adjust its risk communication strategy given the mixed signals of reduced frequency but potential for powerful storms?
  • Will the increased focus on other extreme weather threats, like flooding and drought, divert resources from hurricane monitoring?

Is this still moving?

Mostly repetition Reached 3 outlets in its first 24 hours
Reports
49
Developments
8
Repetition
90%

What would change this answer

The El Niño cycle weakens or reverses courseThe increase in wind shear would likely diminish, potentially allowing tropical storms to evolve into hurricanes more easily, increasing the NHC's forecast of activity.
The Pacific sees plenty of activity, with seven hurricanes so far, as noted inThe NHC may need to increase its focus on the eastern Pacific, where activity is already high, rather than solely focusing on the Atlantic.

— Other considerations

Beyond this explainer

Questions worth asking

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  • About Tropopause

    Since wind shear is a change in wind speed with height, how might shifts in the tropopause affect the vertical wind shear across the Atlantic?

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Who else could feel it

Other possible ripples from the same event.

Reporting

All 15 outlets

Keep going

The full eventSuper El Niño Conditions Drive Extreme Weather Across the Americas and Pacific Everything aboutNational Hurricane Center

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.