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Part of El Nino is causing drought conditions in Sumatra and Kalimantan, leading to increased fire risk and smoke affecting Malaysia.

How could transboundary smoke affect Indonesia's agricultural productivity and food security?

Likely What happens if… A possibility worth considering, not a forecast.

Transboundary smoke may reduce Indonesian crop yields and threaten food security The transboundary smoke, originating from critical source areas in Kalimantan and Sumatra, poses a significant threat to Indonesian agriculture. Pollutants like particulate matter and ground-level ozone can reduce photosynthesis in crops, leading to lower growth, reduced yields, and diminished quality. This risk is compounded by climatic trends, including El Nino conditions and below-normal rainfall in parts of the archipelago, which reinforce fire activity and haze episodes.

Reported by 1 independent outlet Written Yesterday
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How it reaches Indonesia

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The facts so far

As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.

  • By Sep 30, 2026, the main active haze problem had shifted to maritime Southeast Asia, with Kalimantan and Sumatra becoming critical source areas of smoke.channelnewsasia.com
  • Poor air quality can reduce photosynthesis, growth, yields and crop quality.channelnewsasia.com
  • The 2026 haze episodes underlined the risk, following widespread transboundary smoke across the Mekong sub-region during the December 2025 to May 2026 dry season.channelnewsasia.com
  • El Nino conditions, the southern ASEAN dry season, below-normal rainfall in parts of archipelagic Southeast Asia and elevated fire activity can reinforce one another into a polycrisis.channelnewsasia.com

Why it matters

The agricultural sector in Indonesia, like the rest of Southeast Asia, faces a growing existential threat from air pollution. While haze is often viewed as a public health issue, the reports emphasize that pollutants can directly damage crops, making air quality a critical food security issue that requires quantification.

This risk is part of a broader regional challenge. ASEAN has about 126 million hectares of farmed land, and the current climatic trends, driven by El Nino, mean that haze episodes are becoming more prolonged and severe, requiring governments to integrate air-quality warnings into agricultural policy.

What we don't know yet

  • What is the quantified loss in tonnes of crops due to air pollution in Indonesia?
  • How will Indonesian agricultural policy adapt to integrate air-quality warnings into digital agriculture?

What would change this answer

ASEAN Food, Agriculture and Forestry Sectoral Plan 2026–2030 connects air quality directly with agricultural productivityThe policy response to haze-related crop damage in Indonesia would become more formalized and targeted.
El Nino conditions dissipate and rainfall increases significantly in the archipelagoThe frequency and intensity of fire activity and transboundary smoke originating from Kalimantan and Sumatra would likely decrease.

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The full eventTransboundary Smoke and Air Quality Pose Food Security Risks in Southeast Asia Everything aboutIndonesia

Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.