How could the rise in mental ill-health affect the Department for Work and Pensions?
Increased mental ill-health may strain the Department for Work and Pensions The UCL study found that the first Covid lockdown, when Boris Johnson told people to stay at home, caused a major rise in psychological distress, equating to about 900,000 more people visiting a family doctor for depression symptoms. This widespread deterioration in mental health, which the study notes has persisted, increases the population's reliance on support systems. Consequently, the Department for Work and Pensions could face increased demand for social security and benefits as more people struggle with health issues or reduced capacity to work.
- Effect
- Strong negative
- How direct
- 2 steps, 1 inferred by Brind
- When
- Over the long term
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How it reaches Department for Work and Pensions
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Researchers at University College London used UK Household Longitudinal Study data from 2009 to 2024 to estimate the mental health impact of five systemic shocks. These shocks included Brexit, Liz Truss’s mini-budget, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the first and second Covid lockdowns. The study found that these events led to a serious and lasting deterioration in the UK population’s mental health.
The full event1independent outlet -
The UCL study found that the first Covid lockdown, when Boris Johnson told people to stay at home, caused a jump in the UK’s GHQ-12 score that equated to about 900,000 more people visiting a family doctor for depression symptoms. This rise in distress has led to the total number of people in England in contact with NHS mental health services almost doubling from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25.
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- theguardian.com Thursday
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publicly-funded healthcare systems in the United Kingdom
Everything about National Health Service -
The sustained increase in mental ill-health and psychological distress places pressure on the social safety net. As more people struggle with mental health issues, they are likely to require greater support, potentially leading to increased demand for benefits and services managed by the Department for Work and Pensions.
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United Kingdom government ministerial department
Everything about Department for Work and Pensions
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The facts so far
As reported. Each one links to where it comes from.
- The first Covid lockdown caused a jump in mental distress equating to about 900,000 more people visiting a family doctor for depression symptoms.theguardian.com
- The total number of people in England in contact with NHS mental health services almost doubled from 2.64 million in 2016-17 to 4.13 million in 2024-25.theguardian.com
- New referrals to the NHS for mental ill-health jumped from 360,000 in April 2022 to 530,000 in July 2026, a jump of 47%.theguardian.com
- Mental ill-health costs the UK £300bn a year, according to research by the Centre for Mental Health thinktank.theguardian.com
Why it matters
The Department for Work and Pensions is central to the UK's social safety net, managing benefits and support for those facing economic or health difficulties. A sustained, large-scale increase in mental ill-health means a larger segment of the population may require financial or health-related support, placing significant operational and financial strain on the DWP.
This crisis is not isolated. The UCL study identifies five 'systemic shocks'—including Brexit, the Covid lockdowns, and the mini-budget—as contributing factors to the deterioration. This suggests that the DWP must contend with the cumulative effects of multiple overlapping economic and public health pressures.
What we don't know yet
- How will the DWP adjust its benefit criteria or support mechanisms to address mental health-related claims?
- What is the projected long-term financial cost to the UK government from this sustained rise in mental ill-health?
What would change this answer
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Reporting
- theguardian.comThursday
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Brind's analysis is written by AI from the reporting linked above and can be wrong. This explainer is a possibility worth considering, not a forecast: steps marked as Brind's reasoning are not stated in the reporting. It is not investment advice; do your own research.