El Niño Drives Enhanced Rainfall Risks Across Horn of Africa
The latest in this situation
- El Niño intensifies rainfall and flooding risk across East Africa, including Uganda and Lake Victoria.
- El Nino is affecting weather conditions in South West Somalia.
- Acute food insecurity grips the Horn of Africa as failed rains reduce food production across Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Sudan.
- El Niño is enhancing rainfall and associated risks across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
How it started
What happened
El Niño is currently increasing rainfall risks across Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) forecasts a 90 per cent chance of enhanced rainfall over southern Ethiopia, central and southern Somalia, and northeastern Kenya. The warning applies to the October-December rainfall season, with high likelihood of more than 400mm of seasonal rainfall in parts of central Kenya and the Lake Victoria Basin.
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Why it matters
The enhanced rainfall outlook prompts calls for early action from farmers, agro-dealers, and stakeholders in the agricultural supply chain. These groups are urged to intensify pest and disease surveillance and take measures to protect both current crops and post-harvest produce.
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Who's involved
Who could feel it
Possible knock-on effectsThese are possibilities Brind reasoned out, not predictions, and not advice. Most are not stated in any report.
- KenyaSpeculative
The agricultural supply chain in Kenya could face increased risks of flooding, crop disease, and post-harvest losses.
- SomaliaSpeculative
The agricultural supply chain in Somalia could face increased risks of flooding, crop disease, and post-harvest losses.
- EthiopiaSpeculative
The agricultural supply chain in Ethiopia could face increased risks of flooding, crop disease, and post-harvest losses.
How it developed
Newest first. Tap a step to see who reported it.El Niño intensifies rainfall and flooding risk across East Africa, including Uganda and Lake Victoria.1 source
- El Nino is affecting weather conditions in South West Somalia.Sub-event
- Acute food insecurity grips the Horn of Africa as failed rains reduce food production across Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, and Sudan.Sub-event
El Niño is increasing rainfall risks in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia.1 source
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The entities involved
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Kenya
country in Eastern Africa
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Somalia
sovereign state in Africa
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Ethiopia
country in the Horn of Africa
Related events
- El Niño conditions are causing increased risks of droughts and floods in high-risk countries across Africa and Latin America.
- El Niño is affecting agricultural production across the region involving Uganda, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia.
- Harvest failure, excessive rains leading to floods, and El Niño are causing acute food insecurity across multiple African nations including Malawi, Somalia, and Zambia.
- Climate impacts intensify across Africa in 2025, leading to deepening droughts in East Africa, severe floods in Nigeria, and related issues in the DRC.
- WorldFish and the WMO studied the climate effects of El Niño, noting its drought impact on Ethiopia.